COVID-19 Modeling with Lenski

Neher ran simulations to get a handle on this scenario, using his educated guesses for the relevant parameters. He assumed then that many such outbreaks were already underway, and that they were running 2 or 3 months behind the Wuhan outbreak. With increased awareness among the public and health-care workers, he assumed that many of the new outbreaks would grow more slowly than Wuhan’s did and be contained. (As seems to have happened in Singapore.) And even those that grow large would, like Wuhan, slow down once they had become very large due to quarantines and other social distancing. (As seems to be be happening in South Korea.) Nevertheless, Neher found it was possible to envision total global cases in several months that would dwarf those seen in Hubei, even while it looked then as though the rate of increase was declining.


This is how it spreads

Flight 253, with 114 passengers and crew aboard, landed at Palm Beach International Airport shortly before 9 p.m. Wednesday but remained on the tarmac for about three hours, according to WPTV.

One of the passengers told the station that a man near him was taken to the back of the aircraft.

“He was wearing masks and gloves. His wife was sitting in the same row as me and mentioned to others that he wasn’t feeling well,” Scott Rodman said.

She said he had gotten a phone call with his test results right before we had taken off, implying that he had a positive test but not actually saying it,” he added.