# Explaining the shape of a typical COVID 19 epidemic curve

**URL:** <https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/explaining-the-shape-of-a-typical-covid-19-epidemic-curve/11332>\
**Category:** Conversation\
**Tags:** Science\
**Created:** [August 3, 2020, 6:33pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/explaining-the-shape-of-a-typical-covid-19-epidemic-curve/11332 "2020-08-03T18:33:06Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 64

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Giltil](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/5f8ce5/32.png) [@Giltil](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Giltil)\
**Post date:** [August 6, 2020, 10:06pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/explaining-the-shape-of-a-typical-covid-19-epidemic-curve/11332/64 "2020-08-06T22:06:14Z")

</div>

> [@glipsnort](#):
>
> > [@Giltil](#):
> >
> > The whole article here:
> 
> That’s a letter to the editor, not an article. The last one you cited was an editorial, also not an article.

The thing remains that with a replication error rate of ~ 1 mutation per genome per replication and a strong bottleneck whereby no more than 2 to 10 viral particles are transmitted from one host to the other, genetic entropy of sars-cov-2 is certain to occur quite rapidly.

---

_[View the full topic](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/explaining-the-shape-of-a-typical-covid-19-epidemic-curve/11332)._