# Explaining the shape of a typical COVID 19 epidemic curve

**URL:** <https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/explaining-the-shape-of-a-typical-covid-19-epidemic-curve/11332>\
**Category:** Conversation\
**Tags:** Science\
**Created:** [August 3, 2020, 6:33pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/explaining-the-shape-of-a-typical-covid-19-epidemic-curve/11332 "2020-08-03T18:33:06Z")\
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**Author:** ![glipsnort](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/discourse.peacefulscience.org/glipsnort/32/1541_2.png) [@glipsnort](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/glipsnort)\
**Post date:** [August 6, 2020, 10:49pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/explaining-the-shape-of-a-typical-covid-19-epidemic-curve/11332/66 "2020-08-06T22:49:28Z")

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> [@Giltil](#):
>
> The thing remains that with a replication error rate of ~ 1 mutation per genome per replication and a strong bottleneck whereby no more than 2 to 10 viral particles are transmitted from one host to the other, genetic entropy of sars-cov-2 is certain to occur quite rapidly.

Please show your work. Don’t forget to include the effects of purifying selection in both source and target, the fraction of mutants that are viable (and how you determined this), the fraction that are deleterious (ditto), and the effect of back mutations in the target.

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