# From Panda's Thumb: The Evolution of T-URF13: Does Irreducible Complexity Count or Not?

**URL:** <https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/from-pandas-thumb-the-evolution-of-t-urf13-does-irreducible-complexity-count-or-not/15172>\
**Category:** Conversation\
**Tags:** Science, Design\
**Created:** [June 17, 2022, 4:20pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/from-pandas-thumb-the-evolution-of-t-urf13-does-irreducible-complexity-count-or-not/15172 "2022-06-17T16:20:15Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 5

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**Author:** ![lee\_merrill](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/discourse.peacefulscience.org/lee_merrill/32/14458_2.png) [@lee\_merrill](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/lee_merrill)\
**Post date:** [June 19, 2022, 12:58am UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/from-pandas-thumb-the-evolution-of-t-urf13-does-irreducible-complexity-count-or-not/15172/5 "2022-06-19T00:58:58Z")

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> [@T\_aquaticus](#):
>
> > [@](#):
> >
> > But since it actually happened, the probability of this specific event equals 1. The fallacy of the probability argument is that it presumes the necessity of reaching a _pre-specified_ target. This is not the case.
> 
> I and many others have been making this same argument.

But it’s not necessary to reach a given target, that is why the probability is calculated.

> But since it actually happened, the probability of this specific event equals 1.

With the timeframe considered after the fact.

> Literally any event can be calculated as improbably as you wish, after the fact.

No, before the fact. And events can be probable, or improbable, before the fact.

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