How to Calculate Probabilities, the ID way:

Say you have a container filled with a million marbles. You cannot see the marbles.

You reach into the container and pull out one marble at random. It is black.

According to ID Creationist probability calculations, the odds of your picking a black marble (and not one of another colour) are 1 in a million.

The reasoning: There were 1 million possible marbles you could have drawn. But you drew only one. And it was black. Therefore, 1/1 million.

Ask them how they know, and they say “but suppose I had a friend who pulled out another black one, that would show constraint”.

And you have to concede the point, it does constrain the value further.

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