Human Inference is Probablistic

From the press release:

“The notions of probability, though intuitive, are very difficult to quantify and use rigorously. For example, my statistics students often fail to solve some of the problems I pose in class. In our study, we find that a complicated mathematical problem involving the use of the most sophisticated rules of probability can be solved intuitively if it is presented simply and in a natural context,” asserts Rubén Moreno-Bote, coordinator of the Research Group …

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