# Kondrashov's Paradox: Why We Haven't Died 100 Times Over

**URL:** <https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/kondrashovs-paradox-why-we-havent-died-100-times-over/17840>\
**Category:** Conversation\
**Tags:** Science\
**Created:** [May 26, 2026, 4:17pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/kondrashovs-paradox-why-we-havent-died-100-times-over/17840 "2026-05-26T16:17:31Z")\
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**Author:** ![Roy](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/discourse.peacefulscience.org/roy/32/3799_2.png) [@Roy](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Roy)\
**Post date:** [June 1, 2026, 3:59pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/kondrashovs-paradox-why-we-havent-died-100-times-over/17840/40 "2026-06-01T15:59:20Z")

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> [@Mercer](#):
>
> It’s certain that some individuals will be born without any new **germline** mutations in large populations. It’s painfully and simply obvious from probability.

For bacteria, maybe.

For humans, definitely not.

Using a mutation rate of 1e-8, a genome size of 6e9 and a population of 7e9, the probability of there being an individual with no germline mutations is:

1-((1-((1-(1e-8))^6e9))^7e9)

which (if I’ve successfully negotiated my calculator’s reluctance to handle such small numbers) is 6e-17, or 1 chance in 16 quadrillion {US}.

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