# Probability Arguments for Intelligent Design

**URL:** <https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156>\
**Category:** Side Conversation\
**Tags:** Design\
**Created:** [October 9, 2018, 8:24pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156 "2018-10-09T20:24:49Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 2

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**Author:** ![swamidass](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/discourse.peacefulscience.org/swamidass/32/3_2.png) [@swamidass](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/swamidass)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 9:37pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/23 "2018-10-09T21:37:41Z")

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Isn’t it kinda their rhetoric?

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**Author:** ![Timothy\_Horton](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/discourse.peacefulscience.org/timothy_horton/32/9410_2.png) [@Timothy\_Horton](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Timothy_Horton)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 9:55pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/24 "2018-10-09T21:55:07Z")

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> [@swamidass](#):
>
> Isn’t it kinda their rhetoric?

Rhetoric is the only thing the ID community has produced for the last 20 years. Empty rhetoric at that.

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**Author:** ![Dan\_Eastwood](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/discourse.peacefulscience.org/dan_eastwood/32/2368_2.png) [@Dan\_Eastwood](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Dan_Eastwood)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 10:05pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/25 "2018-10-09T22:05:57Z")

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> [@Mung](#):
>
> As someone who associates himself with intelligent design I am surprised to find out that ID is attempting to overthrow an entire field of science. I know I am not trying to do that! Is this hyperbole or do you seriously believe this to be true?

I should have been more specific - the type of probability argument I am criticizing here starts with incorrect math and ends with overturning the entire field of evolution. We could find milder arguments for ID. What I mean is that science almost always works in very _small steps_, slowly building towards a consolidated theory. ID doesn’t have these small steps, yet tries to make an enormous step to Design.

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**Author:** ![colewd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecd19e/32.png) [@colewd](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/colewd)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 10:11pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/26 "2018-10-09T22:11:01Z")

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> [@Dan\_Eastwood](#):
>
> I should have been more specific - the type of probability argument I am criticizing here starts with incorrect math and ends with overturning the entire field of evolution. We could find milder arguments for ID. What I mean is that science almost always works in very _small steps_ , slowly building towards a consolidated theory. ID doesn’t have these small steps, yet tries to make an enormous step to Design.

Can you be more specific?

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**Author:** ![Dan\_Eastwood](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/discourse.peacefulscience.org/dan_eastwood/32/2368_2.png) [@Dan\_Eastwood](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Dan_Eastwood)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 10:24pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/27 "2018-10-09T22:24:10Z")

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> [@colewd](#):
>
> Can you be more specific?

The bits of plastic at the ends of shoelaces are called “aglets”. Their true purpose is sinister!

IOW: what would you like me to be more specific about? 🙂

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**Author:** ![Michael\_Callen](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/discourse.peacefulscience.org/michael_callen/32/897_2.png) [@Michael\_Callen](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Michael_Callen)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 10:30pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/28 "2018-10-09T22:30:30Z")

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> [@Timothy\_Horton](#):
>
> What a maroon.

Did you just refer to someone as a color from the burgundy family? Or were you potentially referring to the cookie family intending to refer to him instead as a macaroon? At any rate, please tone down your conversations. We can disagree with civility and honor and make this a really great place to hang out, or it can get worse and we can start to throw people out.

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**Author:** ![Dan\_Eastwood](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/discourse.peacefulscience.org/dan_eastwood/32/2368_2.png) [@Dan\_Eastwood](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Dan_Eastwood)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 10:41pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/29 "2018-10-09T22:41:37Z")

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@Mung  
@Timothy_Horton

You two could Silence each other for a few days. Not only you you stop annoying each other, but you would take a load off my moderation stress. Give it a try?

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**Author:** ![colewd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecd19e/32.png) [@colewd](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/colewd)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 10:41pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/30 "2018-10-09T22:41:46Z")

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> [@colewd](#):
>
> I am criticizing here starts with incorrect math and ends with overturning the entire field of evolution.

Here. Support this claim.

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**Author:** ![Timothy\_Horton](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/discourse.peacefulscience.org/timothy_horton/32/9410_2.png) [@Timothy\_Horton](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Timothy_Horton)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 10:47pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/31 "2018-10-09T22:47:44Z")

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> [@Dan\_Eastwood](#):
>
> You two could Silence each other for a few days. Not only you you stop annoying each other, but you would take a load off my moderation stress. Give it a try?

I apologize for letting Mung’s incessant trolling get under my skin. Mung has a long sordid history of trolling pro-science folks at places UD and TSZ and it just rubs me the wrong way. I’ll try harder to ignore him in the future. Thanks.

ETA is there a way to put someone on IGNORE with this board?

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**Author:** ![Michael\_Callen](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/discourse.peacefulscience.org/michael_callen/32/897_2.png) [@Michael\_Callen](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Michael_Callen)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 11:32pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/32 "2018-10-09T23:32:36Z")

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> [@Timothy\_Horton](#):
>
> I apologize for letting Mung’s incessant trolling get under my skin.

Don’t let him. I’ve seen him be persistent, but also back off when necessary…

> [@Timothy\_Horton](#):
>
> ETA is there a way to put someone on IGNORE with this board?

YES!! Don’t respond!! 🙂 Works miracles. (That’s a theological statement.)

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**Author:** ![Dan\_Eastwood](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/discourse.peacefulscience.org/dan_eastwood/32/2368_2.png) [@Dan\_Eastwood](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Dan_Eastwood)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 11:42pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/33 "2018-10-09T23:42:12Z")

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> [@Timothy\_Horton](#):
>
> ETA is there a way to put someone on IGNORE with this board?

Yes, but I’m not sure just where it is, but look at Mung’s profile.

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**Author:** ![Dan\_Eastwood](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/discourse.peacefulscience.org/dan_eastwood/32/2368_2.png) [@Dan\_Eastwood](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Dan_Eastwood)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 11:56pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/34 "2018-10-09T23:56:30Z")

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> [@colewd](#):
>
> > I am criticizing here starts with incorrect math and ends with overturning the entire field of evolution.
> 
> Here. Support this claim.

Did you see my earlier comment where that started?  
Anyway, Statistical inference requires a likelihood for both hypotheses (null and alternative), not just one of them. The ratio of likelihoods creates a Likelihood Ratio test, or with a bit more math, a Bayes Factor.

The common claim of the form “Protein XXX cannot be created randomly because the probability is really small, therefore it must be designed”, is bad math because is involves only a single likelihood, and that is not enough for inference.  
I’m being generous in assuming there has actually been any data evaluated in the first place. More commonly it’s simply an argument from incredulity and circular reasoning, disguised as bad math.

_Hey wait, didn’t we have this discussion when I first got here?_ Anyway …

I could easily Google find someone making the claim that evolution is impossible (and disproven) based that form of argument. I won’t because I’m tired and hungry, and I think you already know exactly the sort of argument I’m talking about.

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**Author:** ![colewd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecd19e/32.png) [@colewd](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/colewd)\
**Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 2:21am UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/35 "2018-10-10T02:21:11Z")

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> [@Dan\_Eastwood](#):
>
> The common claim of the form “Protein XXX cannot be created randomly because the probability is really small, therefore it must be designed”, is bad math because is involves only a single likelihood, and that is not enough for inference.

The inference is that in any observation of a complex sequence like the one I am typing the cause is most likely conscious intelligence vs random neutral change.

In DNA and proteins we are observing complex sequences and the null hypothesis of neutral variation creating the observed sequences fails.

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**Author:** ![swamidass](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/discourse.peacefulscience.org/swamidass/32/3_2.png) [@swamidass](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/swamidass)\
**Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 2:34am UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/36 "2018-10-10T02:34:22Z")

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A post was merged into an existing topic: [Greg on the Forum](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/greg-on-the-forum/1199/583)

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**Author:** ![Timothy\_Horton](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/discourse.peacefulscience.org/timothy_horton/32/9410_2.png) [@Timothy\_Horton](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Timothy_Horton)\
**Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 2:38am UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/37 "2018-10-10T02:38:28Z")

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> [@colewd](#):
>
> In DNA and proteins we are observing complex sequences and the null hypothesis of neutral variation creating the observed sequences fails.

That isn’t the null hypothesis. The probability you need to be calculating is that a continuous long-term process involving selection feedback over a huge number of iterations produced the results. Every probability calculation done by IDers I’ve ever seen always uses the demonstrably wrong method of multiplying a string of (supposedly) independent probabilities. Not once has any IDer ever done any calculations taking into account the beneficial feedback from selection.

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**Author:** ![colewd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecd19e/32.png) [@colewd](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/colewd)\
**Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 3:50am UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/38 "2018-10-10T03:50:10Z")

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> [@Timothy\_Horton](#):
>
> Not once has any IDer ever done any calculations taking into account the beneficial feedback from selection.

If you don’t have function in a sequence there is no selection.

How would you model this in a multicellular ubiquitin system that allows variable cellular division frequencies?

You first need all the parts that can build a living animal and that requires rapid cell division and precise differentiation. You need a central nervous system and an energy transport system as a minimum. There is no known natural process that can possibly model this. There are thousands of interdependent proteins involved.

Design is a reasonable inference here.

> [@Timothy\_Horton](#):
>
> That isn’t the null hypothesis.

This is the null hypothesis proposed by Eugene Koonin.

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**Author:** ![Timothy\_Horton](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/discourse.peacefulscience.org/timothy_horton/32/9410_2.png) [@Timothy\_Horton](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Timothy_Horton)\
**Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 4:02am UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/39 "2018-10-10T04:02:20Z")

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> [@colewd](#):
>
> If you don’t have function in a sequence there is no selection.

Now all you have to do is show there were no functional simple precursors to the proteins we see today. HINT; Joe Thornton’s lab has already resurrected several simpler ancestral proteins.

> [@colewd](#):
>
> You first need all the parts that can build a living animal and that requires rapid cell division and precise differentiation. You need a central nervous system and an energy transport system as a minimum. There is no known natural process that can possibly model this.

Evolution models it by explaining all the parts co-evolved together. It’s a model supported by considerable scientific evidence. Your silly strawman “they had to all fall together from existing functional pieces” like someone was assembling a car is why your ID “it’s too improbable!” argument continually face plants in the scientific community.

> [@colewd](#):
>
> Design is a reasonable inference here.

Only if you believe the design and manufacturing was done by magic.

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**Author:** ![colewd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecd19e/32.png) [@colewd](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/colewd)\
**Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 4:09am UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/40 "2018-10-10T04:09:55Z")

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> [@Timothy\_Horton](#):
>
> Evolution models it by explaining all the parts co-evolved together. It’s a model supported by considerable scientific evidence. Your silly strawman “they had to all fall together from existing functional pieces” like someone was assembling a car is why your ID “it’s too improbable!” argument continually face plants in the scientific community.

Sorry Timothy your simple to complex hypothesis fails here. You have no Idea what you are up against. You can’t drive a car until all the parts are together. A wheel is not functional on its own. Do you know what a ubiquitin system is?

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**Author:** ![Timothy\_Horton](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/discourse.peacefulscience.org/timothy_horton/32/9410_2.png) [@Timothy\_Horton](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Timothy_Horton)\
**Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 4:14am UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/41 "2018-10-10T04:14:00Z")

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> [@colewd](#):
>
> Sorry Timothy your simple to complex hypothesis fails here.

It’s not my simple to complex hypothesis, it’s the one accepted by mainstream science. That you don’t or can’t understand it isn’t science’s problem.

> [@colewd](#):
>
> You can’t drive a car until all the parts are together.

Good thing then biological life forms aren’t assembled from parts like cars are.

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**Author:** ![colewd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecd19e/32.png) [@colewd](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/colewd)\
**Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 4:22am UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/probability-arguments-for-intelligent-design/2156/42 "2018-10-10T04:22:20Z")

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> [@Timothy\_Horton](#):
>
> It’s not my simple to complex hypothesis, it’s the one accepted by mainstream science. That you don’t or can’t understand it isn’t science’s problem.

Show me a paper that explains how the ubiquitin system evolved? You’re making an ad populum fallacy.

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