Torley Presents Alter's Case Against the Resurrection

[swamidass (S. Joshua Swamidass)]

@dga471

Even though I am not a historian, I just find the string of “probable” statements VERY dubious.

Just like I said;

@swamidass

The logic appears to be: we know that horses are the animal of choice to ride, so we should doubt Jesus actually rode a donkey into Jerusalem. By this logic, every detail of a story decreases its likelihood, independent of the evidence of what explanation is most likely given all the evidence.

The fallacy is mistaking P( Story1 ) for P(Story1 | Evidence) vs. P(Story2 | Evidence). The P( Story1 ) will always be low for just about every true story. P(Story1 | Evidence) vs. P(Story2 | Evidence), on the other hand, can point to clear winners and losers.

Multiplied a large number of maybes together and everything looks impossible.