# Young Earth Creationism: 10-20 Year Predictions
**URL:** https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227
**Category:** Conversation
**Tags:** Science, Design
**Created:** [May 3, 2025, 2:27am UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227 "2025-05-03T02:27:31Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 2
### Author:  [@Roy](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Roy)
#### Post date: [May 8, 2025, 11:00am UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/22 "2025-05-08T11:00:34Z")
> [@jeffb](#):
>
> > [@jeffb](#):
> >
> > More PhD-ed scientists like Dr Ron Neller…
>
> If I can’t come up with 2, I’ll cough up $20.
_ **Two???** _
You want to bet that there will be **two** young earth creationists who get science PhDs in **ten years**?
There are about 25 _thousand_ science/engineering PhDs awarded annually [in the US](https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsf23300/report/u-s-doctorate-awards), about 10 thousand [in the UK](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14703297.2023.2237943#:~:text=examination-,Introduction,Education%20Statistics%20Agency%2C%202022), and about 80 thousand in Europe.
So over the next ten years there’ll be _more than a million_ new science/engineering PhDs, not including those granted in Japan, China, India, Australia etc.
And among those **1,000,000+** new science/engineering PhDs, you want to bet that there will be at least **2** young earth creationists.
But perhaps if you had some appreciation for numbers you wouldn’t be a YEC.
---
### Author:  [@Tim](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Tim)
#### Post date: [May 8, 2025, 4:11pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/23 "2025-05-08T16:11:32Z")
> [@jeffb](#):
>
> > [@jeffb](#):
> >
> > More Global Flood scientific research similar to the recent bent rock layer studies done in the Grand Canyon’s Tapeats Sandstone
>
> I’ll wager on 3-4 like it, or again cough up $20.
3-4 research articles in 10-20 years, means only an article every 2.5-7 years, across _all_ the YEC research institutes. That’s a _ludicrously_ low bar. What will all your YEC PhDs be doing with all their time? Appearing in still more Youtube videos?
> [@jeffb](#):
>
> > [@jeffb](#):
> >
> > In _this_ forum: More people adhering to The Global Flood and a Young Earth.
>
> A whole 200% increase from what’s been observed since I wandered back into PS a few months back. And since it’s been just me lately, two more is all I need. $1.
You’re hardly the only YEC to occasionally wander in. And you’re hardly a ‘regular’ here yourself – having made only 20 posts in the last quarter (7 in the last month). The last YEC regular that I can remember, @thoughtful, last posted about a year or so ago.
A couple of YECs turning up, making a couple of posts, than then disappearing back into the woodwork, over the next few years, is hardly an impressive prediction.
Here are my own predictions on that specific topic:
1. This forum won’t exist in 10 years time. Forums like this tend to have a limited lifespan – and although I myself find its content interesting, I suspect it is visibly past its peak in terms of posting volume.
2. That what new creationists (YECs included) _do_ turn up, will spend less time on the forum than past newcomers have. This is because the forum has _already_ dealt with the arguments before, and so is far more likely to simply repeat previous rebuttals and/or point people to old threads than to entertain a _de novo_ rehash of the argument.
---
### Author:  [@Dan\_Eastwood](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Dan_Eastwood)
#### Post date: [May 8, 2025, 10:59pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/24 "2025-05-08T22:59:08Z")
I will reply in detail tomorrow or Saturday - kind of busy today. 🙂
---
### Author:  [@Tim](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Tim)
#### Post date: [May 9, 2025, 3:29pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/25 "2025-05-09T15:29:08Z")
I think that, before making predictions on the future of YEC, we should perhaps ask ourselves some questions:
1. Are the predictions _substantive_?
As @Roy has pointed out, _two more_ YEC PhDs, out of the million PhDs awarded each year, is a mere drop in the ocean.
1. Are the predictions _consequential_?
Will they have an impact on, or be indicative of, the prominance of and/or level of support for YEC?
It is hard to imagine that two more YEC PhDs will have a noticable impact on support for YEC, or materially improve its prominance.
They might give Tackett a slightly wider range of ‘talking heads’ to interview, but I suspect the average YEC-in-the-pew will neither notice or care. It’s hard to see even a ten-fold increase having much impact.
_Likewise_, I doubt if the average YEC-in-the-pew will notice or care if the claims being presented are on the basis of a formal (if inconclusive) study like Snelling’s, or on the basis of an off-the-top-of-his-head comment, like Neller’s. So even a fairly large number of publications isn’t going to have much impact.
1. Are the predictions _unambiguous_ and _observable_?
Even if a more substantive and potentially-consequential prediction were made, such as a 50% increase in YEC PhDs, how would we know if that had happened? AFAIK, nobody is tracking the number of YEC PhDs.
So, what would be a substantive, consequential, unambiguous, and observable prediction?
One example would be an increase or decrease, beyond the margin of error, in the percentage of YECs in the US.
[Gallup polling](https://news.gallup.com/poll/647594/majority-credits-god-humankind-not-creationism.aspx) suggests that support for YEC comes mostly from the more religious (61% from weekly+ church attendence, 24% from less than monthly) – which is hardly surprising, less educated (49% HS or less, 26% college graduate), and lower incomes (42% \<$50k-pa, 30% \>$100k-pa).
Given this, a long-term trend of the US becoming less religious, and automation reducing the number of lower-education/lower-paying jobs, I would expect a continuation of the long-term downward trend in support for YEC, with a possible blip in the Trump years, due to Trump-induced economic instability leading to a transient boost in religiosity.
I would not expect YEC to die out, but I would expect it to die down.
---
### Author:  [@Dan\_Eastwood](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Dan_Eastwood)
#### Post date: [May 9, 2025, 5:17pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/26 "2025-05-09T17:17:51Z")
> [@jeffb](#):
>
> > [@jeffb](#):
> >
> > More PhD-ed scientists like Dr Ron Neller…
>
> If I can’t come up with 2, I’ll cough up $20.
I think your money is safe. It would be more interesting if these PhDs produced results based on Flood Geology that others find useful _outside of apologetics._
> [@jeffb](#):
>
> > [@jeffb](#):
> >
> > More Global Flood scientific research similar to the recent bent rock layer studies done in the Grand Canyon’s Tapeats Sandstone
>
> I’ll wager on 3-4 like it, or again cough up $20.
Again your money seems safe, at least from the perspective that bent rock layers are fairly common, and people (including Flood Geologists) publish about them. It would be more interesting if the Tapeats sandstone showed evidence consistent with know megaflood events [(it doesn’t, as mentioned here)](https://peacefulscience.org/articles/examining-yec-claims-tonto-group-cambrian-2/) rather than gradual deposition. It would be more interesting still if evidence for _megafloods occuring simultaneously worldwide_ could be demonstrated (a consilience of evidence).
> [@jeffb](#):
>
> > [@jeffb](#):
> >
> > Possibly more Creation-based laboratories and research centers.
>
> Ok, I have a feeling I’m going to be paying up on this one. BUT, I’ll be a good sport and offer up a whopping $10.
>
> Honestly, the only reason I added this one was because I _just_ got done watching this:
This bet might be interesting! Typically there isn’t much of any research done on FG because it doesn’t offer any payback (Allen mentioned this recently). The track record of such centers is poor (The Discovery Institute has one). Still, I don’t want to take your money for nothing, so I will counter:
If a Creation-based laboratory or research center opens, _and has some assurance of independent results_ (no statement limiting results similar to the Answers Research Journal requirement), I will pay you $10, and another $10 if this group manages to publish outside of Creationist journals or conferences.
That might at least let you break even. 😉
I haven’t watched the video yet but I will try to make time.
> [@jeffb](#):
>
> Todd Wood and Paul Garner interview Joel Brown, who’s the new director of the **Van Andel Creation Research Center** , which _sounded_ like the newest creation research center. But having just re-watched it, I see that it had been around, but in a limited capacity in the past (it did apparently have some history before its current location).
>
> I remember watching this and wondering if a newer one like it would ever be created; which is why I posted that as a prediction. Perhaps more just me being hopeful. BUT, since this newest one exists, there’s a small chance newer ones will be created any time soon. I’ll set aside that $10 now…
That should be interesting - I hadn’t read this far yet when I made my counter, but I see no reason to change.
> [@jeffb](#):
>
> > [@jeffb](#):
> >
> > Computer modeling of aspects of The Global Flood.
>
> I’ll wager on 1-2, on things like Catastrophic Plate Tectonics, or sedimentary layer formation occurring simultaneously across the globe (a similar notion to your third bullet) , or related to The Ice-Age. Again: $20.
Now were talking, but this might need some clarification. We should expect some ~simultaneous event from Ice-Ages (there are 5 of them, IIRC), not necessarily from Plate Tectonics. I think physics does not favor you here, except that CPT should be expected to leave unequivocal evidence (if it exists at all).
> [@jeffb](#):
>
> > [@jeffb](#):
> >
> > More evidence for The Global Flood (of course)
>
> This one might be too subjective. I certainly believe there will be, but I’m not sure the best way to quantify it. I’m open to suggestions.
Consilience! As things stand the various Flood narratives contradict each other. IF there was a global Flood then we should expect evidence to point to a single event without contradiction.
> [@jeffb](#):
>
> > [@jeffb](#):
> >
> > In _this_ forum: More people adhering to The Global Flood and a Young Earth.
>
> A whole 200% increase from what’s been observed since I wandered back into PS a few months back. And since it’s been just me lately, two more is all I need. $1.
Deal. I would be happy to see new people here. 🙂
> [@jeffb](#):
>
> BTW do you take Venmo? 😄
Not yet, but there’s plenty of time. 🤠
---
### Author:  [@Roy](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Roy)
#### Post date: [May 9, 2025, 5:18pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/27 "2025-05-09T17:18:17Z")
> [@Tim](#):
>
> As @Roy has pointed out, _two more_ YEC PhDs, out of the million PhDs awarded each year, is a mere drop in the ocean.
Minor correction: \> 1m every _10_ years. Still a drop in the ocean, but the Arctic ocean instead of the Pacific.
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### Author:  [@AnEvolvedPrimate](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/AnEvolvedPrimate)
#### Post date: [May 9, 2025, 9:36pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/28 "2025-05-09T21:36:09Z")
> [@Dan\_Eastwood](#):
>
> As things stand the various Flood narratives contradict each other. IF there was a global Flood then we should expect evidence to point to a single event without contradiction.
Even the flood narrative in the Bible contradicts itself. 🤷♂️
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### Author:  [@dsterncardinale](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/dsterncardinale)
#### Post date: [May 10, 2025, 10:38pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/29 "2025-05-10T22:38:05Z")
My predictions: As we (the USA) slide towards institutionalized Christian Nationalism, YEC will have more clout in some cultural and educational circles, and will continue to basically unknown and irrelevant in science.
Which is the point of YEC. That’s the goal. The science is window-dressing. AiG’s recent pivot to primarily culture war stuff exemplifies this.
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### Author:  [@Argon](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Argon)
#### Post date: [May 11, 2025, 8:28pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/30 "2025-05-11T20:28:19Z")
My predictions: YEC will remain ‘viable’ as it does today, mostly constrained within religious apologetics masquerading as science. We’ll still see the same ‘issues’ of radioactive dating, the speed of light, and ‘kinds’ debated in Creationist conference proceedings. Mainstream science will progress unaffected by YEC ‘discoveries’.
SSDD. Effectively no different from when I first started monitoring about 50 years ago. Only the names change. The ‘YEC revolution’ will always be “Right around the corner, you’ll see!”
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### Author:  [@Roy](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Roy)
#### Post date: [May 12, 2025, 2:08pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/31 "2025-05-12T14:08:31Z")
My prediction:
There will be an increase in the amount of YEC material taught in US schools. Not because YEC is more viable, or has more evidence, but because the authorities that would prevent this are being dismantled; the people who would implement this are being emboldened by a government that not only doesn’t care about this, but also doesn’t care about the legality of their own action or those of their supporters; and the organisations that would be expected to fight against this are likely to be overwhelmed with more pressing issues involving imprisonment and deportation.
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### Author:  [@jeffb](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/jeffb)
#### Post date: [May 13, 2025, 5:45pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/32 "2025-05-13T17:45:53Z")
> [@Dan\_Eastwood](#):
>
> …Still, I don’t want to take your money for nothing, so I will counter:
>
> If a Creation-based laboratory or research center opens, _and has some assurance of independent results_ (no statement limiting results similar to the Answers Research Journal requirement), I will pay you $10, and another $10 if this group manages to publish outside of Creationist journals or conferences.
>
> That might at least let you break even. 😉
A kind geasture! TY.
> [@Dan\_Eastwood](#):
>
> Deal. I would be happy to see new people here. 🙂
Agreed!
> [@Dan\_Eastwood](#):
>
> > [@jeffb](#):
> >
> > BTW do you take Venmo? 😄
>
> Not yet, but there’s plenty of time. 🤠
True. Plus _Venmo_ might not be around as well!
---
### Author:  [@Tim](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Tim)
#### Post date: [May 14, 2025, 1:27pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/33 "2025-05-14T13:27:18Z")
> [@jeffb](#):
>
> Todd Wood and Paul Garner interview Joel Brown, who’s the new director of the **Van Andel Creation Research Center** , which _sounded_ like the newest creation research center. But having just re-watched it, I see that it had been around, but in a limited capacity in the past (it did apparently have some history before its current location).
I did some digging on this center.
It was founded, _circa_ 1995, with funds donated by billionaire and Amway co-founder [Jay Van Andel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Van_Andel).
This leads to two conclusions:
1. Funding such centers would seem to rely on rare, and thus unpredictable, circumstances (in this case a sympathetic billionaire). Has any similar center been founded in the last 30 years?
2. If Jeff wasn’t aware of its existence until its move was publicised, it would not seem that the center has had much of an impact.
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### Author:  [@Mercer](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Mercer)
#### Post date: [May 14, 2025, 8:31pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/34 "2025-05-14T20:31:53Z")
Interesting, because Van Andel funds real research in a big way:
> **[Home](https://www.vai.org/)**
>
> Learn more about at Van Andel Institute. Explore our in-depth resources and latest articles.
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### Author:  [@Argon](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Argon)
#### Post date: [May 15, 2025, 6:58pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/35 "2025-05-15T18:58:26Z")
Hmm… Membership in the society requires adherence to a statement of belief.
> **[Apply for Membership](https://www.creationresearch.org/membership-subscriptions)**
>
> Creation Research Society
Their articles and instructional materials are all YEC.
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### Author:  [@jeffb](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/jeffb)
#### Post date: [May 20, 2025, 7:12pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/36 "2025-05-20T19:12:38Z")
So here’s another topic that would be interesting to place predictions on: Evolution.
(Personally this isn’t a topic I study anymore. I’m so convinced that it’s false that I’ve actually lost interest in it. I prefer to study the age of the earth)
My general prediction here is that we will continue to see more and more quotes like those detailed here: [Experts admit big problems with evolution](https://creation.com/problems-with-neo-darwinism-drive-experts-to-call-for-new-theory-of-evolution). I know it’s a lot to read, but at least read the quotes.
BTW, I was actually going to add another prediction: That the supposed 1% difference between humans and chimps was going to increase. Turns out that would have been a good prediction:
> **[“1% Difference” Now Overturned | Evolution News and Science Today](https://evolutionnews.org/2025/05/bombshell-new-research-overturns-claim-that-humans-and-chimps-differ-by-only-1-percent-of-dna/)**
>
> This finding should be major news in the science world, yet those involved don’t seem interested in highlighting the discovery.
Perhaps I’ll add a few more: More data supporting devolution and genetic entropy, and more data against “Junk DNA”
There, that ought to stir up some conversation…
Any others interesting in making predictions regarding Evolution?
---
### Author:  [@AllenWitmerMiller](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/AllenWitmerMiller)
#### Post date: [May 20, 2025, 7:22pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/37 "2025-05-20T19:22:35Z")
@jeffb, did you notice—as is usually the case when CMI, CRI, and AIG cite something they are trying to spin—that they conveniently leave out a clickable link? Well, it happened again and again and again. (Notice that this is the pattern throughout their footnotes.)
So I will help out: the first citation is from: [Study suggests that most of our evolutionary trees could be wrong](https://phys.org/news/2022-06-evolutionary-trees-wrong.html)
(And in other news, it turns out that Newton’s Law of Universal Gravitation was “wrong” in that it was “only” an _excellent approximation_ and it has been superseded by Einstein’s Theory of General Relativity. Film at eleven.)
**Of course, if one actually READS the [phys.org](http://phys.org) article, it is far from evidence that the Theory of Evolution is falling apart.** Instead, the article emphasizes that now that we have genetic sequencing, taxonomists can create more accurate phylogenies. This is what we _expect_ in science as more and more evidence becomes available: increasingly impressive consilience of evidence. (And as I have done so many times in the past, I recommend Isaac Asimov’s “The Relativity of Wrong.”)
Of course, most of the audience of the major Young Earth Creationist organizations will not carefully read the articles cited (especially when the links aren’t provided) and they will simply accept the spin. As you have.
This gives me additional flashbacks of my own experiences in the YEC community so long ago. Indeed, I willing to make the 10 to 20 year predictions based on the same patterns I’ve observed in the past 60 years:
(1) Scientists will continue to compile more and more evidence of the powers of evolutionary processes.
(2) Anti-evolution organizations will continue to play the same spin games to deceive their audiences—and solicit donations.
---
### Author:  [@AllenWitmerMiller](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/AllenWitmerMiller)
#### Post date: [May 20, 2025, 7:38pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/38 "2025-05-20T19:38:13Z")
By the way, if I had to nominate my personal favorite for face-palm-inducing, anti-evolution spin, it would be:
> **[Dissent from Darwin – There is a scientific dissent from Darwinism and it...](https://dissentfromdarwin.org/)**
It fascinates me on multiple levels. It is just as humorous today as when it was first announced.
I’m curious to know if you have signed that petition, @Jeff. And as I’ve explained many times over the years, I could actually attest to its “truth” and sign that petition (if not for contributing to the confusion and spin it is meant to promulgate.)
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### Author:  [@Roy](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/Roy)
#### Post date: [May 20, 2025, 7:41pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/39 "2025-05-20T19:41:13Z")
> [@jeffb](#):
>
> There, that ought to stir up some conversation…
Ah, Philip Bell.
I’ve met him.
Did you know he claims that UFOs are demon transport craft?
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### Author:  [@AllenWitmerMiller](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/AllenWitmerMiller)
#### Post date: [May 20, 2025, 7:42pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/40 "2025-05-20T19:42:22Z")
> [@Roy](#):
>
> Ah, Philip Bell.
But don’t forget his impressive pedigree as a CMI speaker:
**B.Sc. (Hons) Zoology**_[Yes. A genuine bachelor’s degree. With honors, no less!]_
**P.G.C.E.** _[That means he passed a postgraduate course for aspiring teachers in England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and South Africa.]_
Bell may also have earned his real estate license–but no doubt he likes to keep things humble and concise.
> [@Roy](#):
>
> Did you know he claims that UFOs are demon transport craft?
Yeah, but even those demon transport craft refuse to route through the Newark airport these days.
(Hey, they may be demonic but they ain’t crazy.)
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### Author:  [@RonSewell](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/u/RonSewell)
#### Post date: [May 20, 2025, 8:09pm UTC](https://discourse.peacefulscience.org/t/young-earth-creationism-10-20-year-predictions/17227/41 "2025-05-20T20:09:54Z")
> [@jeffb](#):
>
> That the supposed 1% difference between humans and chimps was going to increase. Turns out that would have been a good prediction
Jeff. Did you look at the source paper?
[Complete sequencing of ape genomes](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08816-3)
because it aligns with and furthers our understanding of human evolution.
> [@jeffb](#):
>
> More data supporting devolution and genetic entropy, and more data against “Junk DNA”
Are you aware that the genome paper you reference supplies evidence against this your immediately following statement?
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