As a Christian, you are familiar with the idea of God’s providence. How does God achieve it? He definitely does not always do it ‘supernaturally’, overriding natural law that he has established. Scripture is replete with examples, as is recorded history in the lives of multiple hundreds of Christians since, and in mine. I am reminded of one involving George Müeller, founder of many orphanages in England, when they sat down at breakfast to empty plates, not knowing where the food was going to come from, and gave thanks anyway. God provided by design. So probabilities are irrelevant, but you can still believe in design, as do I.