I used to be much impressed with Dr. Douglas Axe’s infamous “10^77” argument. If one accepted that figure, as well as the propositions that the first organism must have been a cell, and that a minimal cell requires 250 different proteins, then it’s easy to show that life is vanishingly improbable. However, I now regard all of the above as gratuitous assertions at best, and I have been persuaded that the 1 in 10^77 figure is bad science. Hence I would now say that the boot is on the other foot: it’s incumbent on design proponents to show that abiogenesis is astronomically unlikely.
Let me reiterate that my change of opinion has nothing to do with theology. For me, it’s the math that counts. Cheers.