This was Andrew’s original claim:
This would seem to be a narrow subset of your original claim. I would also note that Coyne does not appear to be advocating for discrimination against Trans people, but rather balancing the potential for harm to them against the potential for harm to others affected by some policies.
I would further note that China, the topic of the first study cited, is notoriously repressive and conformist. I would not be surprised if every minority within China is suffering mental health issues. Recent reports of ‘revenge against society’ mass-killings suggest that even members of the majority are suffering.
The first paper again deals with discrimination (specifically anti-discrimination policies). The second’s discussion on sport relies solely on the third. The third’s conclusion:
Currently, there is no direct or consistent research suggesting transgender female individuals (or male individuals) have an athletic advantage at any stage of their transition (e.g. cross-sex hormones, gender-confirming surgery) and, therefore, competitive sport policies that place restrictions on transgender people need to be considered and potentially revised.
… appears to be directly contradicted by the findings of a paper I have already posted here:
No Andrew.
First I would like to <sarcasm> thank you for putting words in my mouth.</sarcasm>
Secondly, I would like to point out that your claim was not the far more limited claim that:
What the research shows is that trans people are subject to harmful discrimination.
Andrew, I have presented evidence (The Economist piece) that WPATH may have been manipulating and censoring research. @dsterncardinale, whatever you may think of the merits of the Cass Review, the heat of the reaction to it would appear to be evidence that contrary voices are being “shouted down.”
Andrew, as I have substantiated my above claim, I would request that you RETRACT your false, perjorative and UNPEACEFUL comparison.
Which is why I went on to say “if and when it becomes [an issue], it should be decided on a case-by-case basis, not by eliminating all trans people from sports.”
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This purported rebuttal fails to address my first point (“The effect that it would have is a function of both the number of trans athletes and their (increased) probability of winning.”)
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It fails to address my point that this may already have ‘become an issue’ in cycling.
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It ignores the inertia that such policies create – the longer that these policies are in place, the more people who have invested in their sporting careers on the basis of them, the more difficult it is to change course. I see nothing wrong with sporting bodies being forward-looking in setting their policies.
What? Your entire concern was about safety (“harm to their fellow prisoners”), and I pointed out that trans women in male prisons are at a hugely increased risk of sexual violence.
No Andrew. You are focusing ONLY on the harm to trans prisoners, and thus ignoring my point about the potential for harm to fellow prisoners.
It may well be that there is no good answer to this – but ignoring one side of the question is not the way to get to a least-bad answer.
Andrew previous accused me of making “faulty conclusions”, when I had as yet made none. So here now is my conclusion.
Conclusion
This topic appears to generate far more heat than light on both sides.
It has certainly led me to increased distrust of both Andrew’s, and Coyne’s, view on the topic. But it has led me no closer to finding any voice I feel I can trust to be objective.
This leads me, as a mere would-be-informed observer, who has neither a deep professional nor policy-making need to be informed on the topic, to feel that given the emotional heat and lack of enlightenment that engagement in this topic generates, I’d be best advised to leave it well alone.
I do not think that this conclusion is consistent with this forum’s stated goals, nor with creating a well-informed public on this issue. But that is not my problem.
Mercutio’s dying line would appear to be the most appropriate conclusion.