That’s where it gets into the details.
I get it if you don’t want to read a whole book (or even a 75 page article) to hear my case. But I feel there’s little point in me repeating it (in an incomplete and inferior way) when it’s already been done and when the little details matter for the probability assessments here. Try reading the article. If you think it’s useless because you don’t buy that the Gospels are sufficiently reliable, try looking at the sources I suggested earlier in this thread (this book, or this series of presentations.)
And if you think there’s a good case to be made for the other side that requires a book-length amount of attention, feel free to suggest it, and I’ll try to check it out.