This prediction seems to indicate that they’ll be taking support mainly off the Conservatives (which are predicted to see their vote nearly halved), but with the total Conservative + Reformed vote only increasing slightly:
Our prediction is that the Conservatives will lose a large amount of support and councillors to the Reform UK party. The Liberal Democrats are also expected to make some gains, while Labour might lose ground a little. The Green party and independent candidates are more difficult to predict accurately, so their predictions are subject to a greater amount of uncertainty.
The picture is simple: the Trump administration’s economic policymaking has been unpredictable and incompetent at a moment where high deficits and lingering inflation worries mean there is no room for amateurism. Yields are likely to remain volatile. Global investors are responding to this fact by demanding higher yields for owning Treasuries. The sell-off of Treasuries has pulled the dollar down. All of this has been amplified by the reversal of highly leveraged hedge fund trades that are no longer tenable in a high volatility environment. – The Financial Times
