Creation Myths with Dr. Michael Behe on "The Edge of Evolution"

Yes, and it demonstrates my point. In order to argue that the size of the search space is a problem, you had to also stipulate something about the chance of success, that is the number of people who have phone numbers. In other words, at the very least you need to talk about the ratio of numbers to people.

And further still, you have given no indication of what kinds of search-strategies are available. Is the process of searching intrinsically biased towards numbers likely to be answered when called? Does getting a digit wrong some times still end up resulting in a poor connection, but a connection nevertheless? Do number holders cluster together? Do calls cluster together? Does one successful call lead to information about other useful numbers?

So merely blathering about the number of possible phone numbers says nothing about how likely you are to call someone. It’s not clear, taking your analogy further, why would there would need to be a 90% chance of success “on the first try” when sampling sequence space for function? And just what constitutes a “try” in evolution?

“Oh gee there’s a lot of possible phone numbers” is not an argument for anything.

4 Likes