You say that you would be convinced of evidence, and you don’t assume naturalism or materialism. Why can’t other Christians who accept evolution hold the same position as you?
Then what are you talking about when you ask for a model based on probability? I had assumed you were talking about genetic sequences. Is this not the case?
That’s exactly what we have with humans and other ape genomes. They are a direct record of those mutational events within their lineages. We can even accurately predict the distribution of different types of substitution mutations, which I discuss in this thread: