Then how does it follow that the origin of life would have to spontaneously produce an organism with 470 genes?
Why, in your attempt to estimate the probability of the origin of life, are you trying to claim it has to have begun with the spontaneous appearance of a bacterium with 470 genes?
If you’re not saying life could not be simpler, then why are you insisting on basing your estimate of life’s origin on something you are conceding to not actually know whether is a requirement?