GE of the coronavirus doesn't make sense

[Giltil (Gilbert Thill)]

@Rumraket

Okay. Now let’s look at the Corona virus. The most genetically divergent strains are something on the order of about 50 mutations different from each other, and in the area of 15-30 mutations different from the first identified variants making the rounds back in december 2019 or thereabouts. A few tens of mutations in total are separating the different strains

According to the analysis of S&C, the accumulation of point mutations within the H1N1 virus occurred at 14,4 new mutations / year, which is close to what we saw this year for the coronavirus.

@Rumraket

That means, if you think Genetic entropy is causing the declining Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations, that a Coronavirus carrying approximately 30-50 mutations of effectively invisibly small fitness effects , is decreasing it’s fitness from whatever it’s ancestral value was back in end 2019, to values below 1.0.

Now obviously that does not make sense. How can ~50 mutations of invisibly small fitness effects ( s ≈ -0.00001 or less?) add up to a fitness decline so significant that the virus is supposedly going extinct?

The number of accumulated mutations in one year is probably to small to have a clear visible effect on fitness. But if the coronavirus go on to accumulate ~ 20 mutations / year, I would bet that in 10 years, after having accumulated 200 mutations, a reduction in fitness will be seen.