The red/purple bars are the H1N1 subtype, the first red bar is the Spanish strain and the second is the swine strain, and the red switches to purple (a reassortment in swine, still H1N1) and continues as an arrow until the present:
It’s correct. You are not.
I am not misquoting you. The dots in the circle are the swine strain. Your corrected legend is still false.
While there have been numerous adaptations within the H1N1 genome, most of the genetic changes we document here appear to be non-adaptive, and much of the change appears to be degenerative. We suggest H1N1 has been undergoing natural genetic attenuation, and that significant attenuation may even occur during a single pandemic. This process may play a role in natural pandemic cessation and has apparently contributed to the exponential decline in mortality rates over time, as seen in all major human influenza strains.
But NOT killing your host is a positive adaptation, so the change is not degenerative. A endemic host population is essential for the long term survival of a virus. Benign infection is best of all.
I just figured out what you are actually getting at here. You’re nitpicking (again) on the subtext under the graph on the creation.com article. You have a problem with the fact that our legend says ‘Spanish Flu’ even though there is that red circled area present that is not referring to Spanish Flu.
I don’t really think it’s a problem because the main point of the graph is to show the Spanish Flu over time, but just to make the wording exactly perfect, I don’t mind taking the words “Spanish Flu” out entirely from the subtext… will that ameliorate your concerns here?
Did you read the part where he goes over some ‘potential objections’? (And by the way, this claim here is also directly addressed in our joint article at creation.com/fitness )
Not at all. The points in between are not Spanish either:
These and the scattered points are all derived from SWINE H1N1 versions…
This is what I mean about ignoring evidence, not interpreting the same evidence differently.
Just so we are all on the same page . . .
According to the CDC, the 2009 pandemic strain of H1N1 is still circulating.
How about this for a subtext on the chart, just to be totally accurate:
“Mutation Accumulation in H1N1 over time”
You are correct and I was wrong. It deals with the H1N1 subtype, BOTH Spanish and swine strains. That subtype is not extinct.
I agree. That’s a big reason why all three of the papers are misinforming people.
It’s been repeatedly demonstrated to be the case and completely ignored by @PDPrice and colleagues. More simply, H1N1 is still causing disease in Asia. It has neither disappeared nor has it become extinct.
It would be totally accurate if you replaced “accumulation” with “fixation,” and then included a section on how reassortment of genome segments starts new epidemics, and then cited all of the H1N1 outbreaks since 2009-10.
But then your whole point evaporates.
Ok, well this has been helpful. Thanks for helping me with correcting that mishap on the image subtext! Your input is appreciated.
The one in red is the H1N1 subtype. The first red bar is Spanish, the second is swine.
You’ve misread the chart. The two red bars are both Spanish Flu-that’s the whole reason they’re both the same color. Swine flu (2009-) is purple.
From your paper
For the flu virus, the best way to spread is to reproduce as much and as quickly as possible; that is also likely to be much more deadly to those it infects.
I do not think so. The best way for a virus to persist long term is to have a reservoir. The trend of disease to moderate virulence is a long standing observation. If flu started off so hyper deadly, why did it wait to 1918 to get rolling instead of wiping everybody out back 6000 years ago?
Because that’s when it jumped from avian hosts to humans.
I don’t think so.
Red means H1N1, which includes both strains. I think that you should look at evidence from the outbreaks since 1977 before making such a claim. I don’t think anyone classified those as Spanish.
This just emphasizes that you are ignoring all of the horizontal gene transfer going on in porcine and avian hosts in your article. It’s not as neat and tidy as your portrayal.
No I’m sorry, but that’s not correct. Swine is clearly indicated by the little pig on the chart (made for dummies like me). The source of the 1977 outbreak is not known for certain, but according to Carter and Sanford’s paper it was an exact copy of the same strain that apparently died out 20 years earlier in Europe (i.e. Spanish Flu).
Why are the birds not dead?
Because it isn’t harmful to them like it is to humans.
Please reconcile this.
Simple- first quote is referring to the benign state in the avian hosts, while the second quote is referring to the pathogenic state in the human hosts.