Influenza may be in evolutionary stasis in its natural reservoir after all

[RonSewell (RonS)]

@Giltil

I agree with you that if the flu rate of molecular evolution is only 40% lower in its natural reservoirs (wild birds) than during outbreaks in other hosts, this difference is probably not enough to explain away the persistence of AIV if genetic entropy is true. But isn’t the key to this enigma the frozen evolution phenomenon, I.e., the fact that influenza viruses can persist for prolonged period of time in an abiotic form in the environment?

I agree that the idea of abiotic preservation cannot be just summarily dismissed.

Not specifically influenza, but here is a paper surveying findings relevant to idea that microbes might survive long periods of freezing:

Future threat from the past

The remarkable finding of an ancient virus:

Thirty-thousand-year-old distant relative of giant icosahedral DNA viruses with a pandoravirus morphology

And some popular level articles:
BBC - There are Diseases Hidden in Ice

SciAm - As Earth Warms, the Diseases That May Lie within Permafrost Become a Bigger Worry

Vox - Melting permafrost in the Arctic is unlocking diseases

The permafrost pandemic: could the melting Arctic release a deadly disease?