@John_Harshman :
Well, then, I hope go on to have a good day. I did find our conversation helpful, even though it was frustrating at times. I also think that your probing posts do add to the discussion in general, at least for the first few rounds, because it weeds out claims that don’t have at least that level of depth. I’m sure I’ll see you around!
@chris_doesdna2018 :
I’m absolutely agreed on your points about the virtues of science. I do, however, wonder about how many scientists have actually internalized their training, and can apply their evidence-evaluation skills in a more general setting. I find it to be a rare skill.
I also agree that science is best for “testable and falsifiable claims”, but depending on how much of a stickler you want to be, this may account for a fairly small portion of our shared reality. History, for example, cannot be A/B tested, and there’s a good reason that scientists don’t rule the world. But this is the beginning of a long discussion - one which is perhaps best saved for another thread.
@Dan_Eastwood :
Thanks for checking in! And yes, we did discuss the sample space in multiple ways, and I think it actually did get resolved pretty cleanly!
@chris_doesdna2018 , @swamidass :
I would not discount the importance of the general sentiment around Adam and Eve in the GAE discussion. Here’s what I mean:
If I thought I had a very strong piece of evidence for some hypothesis H, but then later discovered that this evidence was actually negligible, I can describe this situation in two ways: I can either say “there is negligible evidence for H, so I will not have any strong opinions about it”, or say “oh snap! I was totally wrong about H! I have to make a dramatic shift in my thinking!” Both are technically correct, but the second way is much more accurate in terms of what I should do.
What I cannot do is the following: “well, there’s negligible evidence for H, so I’m not going to strongly update my beliefs about it”. This is a severe error, one that mixes evidence and attitudes in exactly the wrong way. So, in this way, the discovery that a piece of evidence is negligible can itself act as strong evidence.
Here’s how this applies to Adam and Eve, and GAE: if you’re some old, pious grandma who was ignorant of science and just wanted to read and believe what the Bible says, GAE shouldn’t affect you much. It’s a negligible piece of evidence for a hypothesis that you already thought was true.
But, on the other hand, if you’re an atheistic biologist whose beliefs and career were largely based on the idea that Adam and Eve are fundamentally incompatible with evolution, then GAE should absolutely demolish your thought system. What you thought was a strong piece of evidence has turned out to be completely negligible, and you need to have that crisis of faith, that “oh snap” moment.
I don’t know enough about individuals or organizations to name names, but both the general attitude I see in any field connected to evolution, and @swamidass’s specific experiences and examples, indicate that there are a lot of people who are making the very mistake that I described above. They need to have that “oh snap” moment, but they’re instead saying “negligible evidence, so no change to my beliefs”.