Kondrashov's Paradox: Why We Haven't Died 100 Times Over

I’m curious how you know that. The only “kinds” mentioned in Genesis would appear to be species, or in some cases varieties.

It’s true. Every picture I’ve ever seen of the ark shows two giraffes. But it would help if you would identify the particular strata that are post-flood. Some creationists put the boundary at the K-T, some later. I suspect you’ve never thought about it.

In other news, I strongly suspect that you have no idea what species are, don’t have any idea of how to tell whether two populations belong to one species or two, and don’t have any idea of how speciation would work. I could be wrong, but that’s what the data currently indicate.

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Its you guys pushing this, you explain how the text plainly teaches heterozygosity even though everyone in church history somehow missed it. YEC has built an enormous castle in the air, devoid of support in scripture,history, or science.

That is made up so you are indulging in more wholesale eisegesis. Again, who in church history talked of species, let along any deeper taxonomy? If the Hebrews had a distinguishing name for it, like horse and donkey, sheep and goat, those are Old Testament kinds, just as Adam gave.

Here is a previous post I made on the subject…

While a literal ‘plain’ reading of the Genesis creation and flood accounts might reasonably supply a theological foundation for YEC, such an approach sidelines the applicable ancient near east [ANE] context. I contend here, however, that YEC has gone from Biblically based to what has bloated to an extravagant sanctum of dogma which eclipses and at times conflicts with scripture. Among these unjustified extra-Biblical assertions has established a conception of ‘created kinds’ which would be foreign to the original authors and audience, as well as most of church history.

YEC needed some way to deal with the number of animals in the modern global catalog, which is orders of magnitude larger than what would have been experienced by anyone living in the ANE. This represents a logistics problem for YEC, in terms of stuffing such a menagerie on the ark. The workaround concocted by YEC has been ‘created kinds’, followed by ‘ark kinds’. The notion is that modern species have radiated from a much more restricted number of kinds - a ferocious hyper evolution, although YEC prefers other terms. Scientifically or historically, this is not a serious proposal, but the question here concerns the validity of YEC’s Biblical interpretation.

There are plenty of YEC word studies attempting to adduce support for a taxonomic meaning to Biblical kinds, for example: this paper from Rahel Davidson Schafer, and this article from AiG. What is telling is that this preoccupation with kinds as ancestral seems to have entirely escaped the notice of theologians and thinkers through the history of the church until modern times. YEC castigates scholars who deviated from historic Biblical interpretations to accommodate the relatively recent discovery of geological age, but they have proven as open to novel interpretation of scripture in introducing manifold species as descended from created kinds. On this count, YEC is just as unable to appeal to any historical figure or church father. The whole idea is a recent invention.

I would contend that the Hebrew allows for nothing like created kinds as promulgated by YEC, based on both lexical and cultural considerations. Language expresses concepts germane to a people’s life and thought. Ancient people did not coin words for our benefit; there is no ancient Hebrew for neutrino or wifi. Speciation was outside the domain of their experience; kinds just referred to a bunch of animals that were always there. When they read the command to be fruitful and multiply, the plain reading would be that when horses mate, fouls result; and when cattle mate, calves result. When lions mate, the offspring are lions, not leopards, cheetahs, or housecats.

The lion, and not some ark kind, features in Jacob’s patriarchal blessing of Judah in Genesis 49:9

You are a lion’s cub, Judah;
you return from the prey, my son.
Like a lion he crouches and lies down,
like a lioness—who dares to rouse him?

Similarly in the same passage, the donkey is distinguished from the horse, and Benjamin is described as a wolf. The point to this is that, apart from the abundant scientific and historical evidence, from the onset the Bible itself recognizes modern species throughout its entirety, always as distinct animals with Hebrew names. Specifically named creatures which are the same supposed ark kind include lions and leopards; horses and donkeys; foxes, wolves, jackals and dogs; osprey’s, eagles, and falcons; addax and antelope; four species of antelope are distinguished. Even allowing for some looser identifications, it is evident that closely related species are routinely called by name through the Old Testament. And the very opening act of Genesis provides the source of all these animal names as Adam himself.

YEC conveniently brushes off the original Adamic names as probably lost at Babel, so the Bible would not record what Adam called the protocat or other weird creatures which feature in their ark encounter, but the ancient Hebrews were familiar with pre-Babel proper names because their roots are related to common Hebrew words. This goes all the way back - Adam relates to earth, Eve to being the mother of all living, Peleg to divide - even names which are not necessarily relevant to the bearer’s character generally incorporate Hebrew roots. It is doubtful that the ancient Hebrews took these names to be fake, and there is no reason that they would have thought any differently for Adam’s naming of the animals.

YEC likes to claim the plain reading, literal high ground, but if the Hebrews, church fathers, and theologians down the centuries, thought that Adam named all the animals, there goes scriptural impetus for the baramin model. The whole arduous enterprise, with its central place in YEC apologetics, creation journal papers, theorizing on heterozygosity, and routine references like some accepted gospel truth, is all to protect YEC and not burst the ark with animals alive and extinct. It is an extraordinary anachronistic hermeneutic claim, made without any explicit scriptural or historical support.

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If you have a water molecule which is floating in space, away from all other molecules, and it has changed to become an ice molecule, what does that look like? How do we tell which it is?

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So, you’re going to ignore everything I said in response to you in favor of nitpicking my ice analogy?
This whole thread can be viewed as a microcosm of the collective response of the secular scientific community to genetic entropy. Change the subject, obfuscate. Since Hancock is no longer participating in his own thread, I am not going to continue wasting my own time on here, either.

No, you’re trying to move on from faking knowledge. What are the numbers for differences in mutation rates and differences in polymorphism between populations? This is not a difficult determination if you truly believe you are correct or are truly seeking truth. Do you really have faith in your position, though?

Ice molecules don’t melt. There’s no such thing as “ice molecules.” When a block of ice melts, the relationship of the water molecules to each other changes. The water molecules themselves do not change.

So not only is your analogy in no way analogous, it’s patently false.

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Just look for the molecules wearing little mittens and earmuffs. :cold_face: :wink:

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So, you’re not going to admit that your ice analogy had no validity?

I think it’s important to emphasize that the theological incoherence both ID and YEC rivals their scientific incoherence.

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That’s an interesting and massive addition to an allegedly literal reading of Genesis. Would that change apply to all tautomerizations, or just this one?

Has this been addressed anywhere by creation “science,” or is it just ad hoc on your part?

And again, it’s not a “copying mistake” today, since it happens in the substrate, so I’m not sure why you keep using a biology metaphor in a theological context.

I don’t see how it’s obvious. How do you reconcile it with your YEC timeline?

I would just like to point out that falcons are only distantly related to eagles and ospreys, and if they were part of the same “kind”, that kind would also include parrots, woodpeckers, kingfishers, sparrows, hoopoes, and in fact around 80% of all bird species.

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In reality Professor Hancock said plenty of relevance in the first post - and it still hasn’t been effectively answered.

First, that the models do not handle polygenic traits well. This is not mere hand-waving as you would have it - and the supposed subjectivity of traits is a complete irrelevance. It is the traits that determine fitness and subjective classification of traits has nothing to do with that,

Second the fact that within-species competition is an important aspect of fitness - and this depends on the fitness variance within the population. But the models do not account for it.

Indeed the major point you are missing is that these fitness declines are only seen in the models, not reality, So from a scientific perspective there is no good reason to think of them as anything more than an artefact of the models.

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This is something I mean to address in more detail, assuming others haven’t covered this already (I’ve been busy). Fitness variance will increase until difference are big enough for “selection to see”, making GE a self-solving problem.

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You don’t see how history would explain why we see differences in the genetic makeup of different people groups who were historically isolated from one another, and who historically had different social structures, etc.?

I don’t ‘reconcile it’ because it’s not an area I personally have delved into. I know Rob Carter has, but I have not, nor do I have much interest in it.

Nah. I think it would be more fair to say the “secular scientific community” more broadly isn’t ware GE exists, since it was published in a pop-sci book intended for a lay Christian audience, rather than in proper scientific journals.

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Dr. Felsenstein, it’s amazing to me that this is the thing you choose to comment on in this thread.

No, far too much time has already been spent on this pointless tangent in the first place. But by all means, just continue to do your best to derail this thread as far from the original topic as possible. That shows people that you want to talk about anything other than genetic entropy and Kondrashov’s paradox.

Not YOUR history. My understanding of history explains them easily. I’m not talking about the simple presence of differences and I think you know that. I’m talking about their magnitude.

I am fascinated by the contrast between your stated confidence and your lack of curiosity.

I know that Rob Carter has zero relevant expertise. I know that you lack sufficient expertise to know whether his claims make any sense at all, as we learned with influenza.

Again, it would seem that if you are truly confident that you are right and nearly all of the world’s scientists are wrong, that you would be aggressively interested in the relevant data.

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That’s incorrect. The mutation load model isn’t about traits at all. That’s been a misdirection from the start. The model is about mutation accumulation and the effect of the load on fitness. Nothing more or less.

That’s because it’s a redefinition of fitness that obfuscates the problem of mutation load.

That’s not true at all. The fitness decline has indeed been observed in reality, but in most cases the timescale needed to witness this is too long with respect to the time we have been observing it.

One example I have seen where a species has been acknowledged to have gone extinct from mutation load would be the wooly mammoth.

There is not much fitness variance within the population because the effect of most mutations is too small, and they accumulate gradually and relatively homogenously in the population.

I created a realistic simulation in SLiM. There was no self-solving.

Likely you are ignoring the variance; specifically the mathematics of adding two probability distributions together (population fitness and GE bias). I don’t have time to fully explain why until I get caught up at work.

Until then, my educated guess is that your simulation is effectively treating the population as a single individual.