Michael Behe's "Billiard Shot" model

Not if the ineffable one wanted something else to happen.

(36 seconds to go - lorem ipsum lalalalala this is getting very frustrating and I wish I didn’t have to wait…)
(too fast :frowning: )

@Timothy_Horton

No, such a process doesn’t prove or disprove the Billiard Shot model… since we could imagine 12 separate sub-models that the laboratory procedure is tracking.

The Billiard Shot Model is essentially a scientist using a materialistic model to explain that the DESIGN in creation doesn’t mean “magic” … but means God’s super-natural planning abilities before he kicks off the Cosmos into existence.

Behe was actually easier to explain back before his latest book. Now he has introduced so much gobbly-gook, it is impossible to explain what he means.

Is a whale divinely designed? Or is a whale a botched mammal?

Was a dinosaur an divinely designed tetrapod? Or was it a dead-end botched fish?

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@Roy,

Why would God plan one thing, and then want SOMETHING ELSE to happen? I don’t think you are doing yourself any favors by rushing through the logic.

@Eddie and I frequently use the term “Front Loaded” … but we invariably mean that God has divinely designed virtually all of the natural steps in the unfolding of the Universe prior to the Big Bang.

This would, in general, include any natural processes triggered by humans… right?

That doesn’t change the fact all 12 colonies began with the identical genome i.e. the same front loaded information. Genomes which then all followed different evolutionary paths. You also need to explain how all the front loaded information is physically carried in a genome.

Also, how does front loading account for the apparent randomness of physical geological processes which affect the environments (and therefore the evolution) of biota? Things like landslides, asteroid strikes, etc.

Were the 5 major mass extinction events and subsequent re-radiations of completely different phyla of life in the last 500 MY somehow “front loaded” at the Big Bang?

@Timothy_Horton

Chemical reactions and radioactive emanations are hardly being controlled for in an absolute sense simply because you have a population with the same genome.

Some strands of DNA are closer to sources of temperature variation, or in a different angle to incoming electromagnetic radiation, and so forth.

2 identical ingots of silver are not actually identical, right?

Then the Billiard Shot model is wrong since all those things affect subsequent evolution.

@Timothy_Horton

If you are a Christian, and if you support Evolutionary processes, then the obvious conclusion is that God intended for those 5 major extinctions… and he planned it from before the Big Bang.

But I’m sure there are Christians somewhere who think God hadn’t made up His mind until he actually triggered each extinction. Theology and Metaphysics are a very personal and idiosyncratic investment of the mind!

Mileage will vary!

No, I’m fine. Tim’s logic assumes that the same thing would happen in all 12 of Lenski’s colonies under front-loading, but that’s an assumption that may not apply - particularly when compared to biogeography of remote island groups.

Right.

@Timothy_Horton

No, the model is not wrong. But your simplistic rendering of the model is wrong.

Behe’s model includes multiple strikes from different angles, from different geometrics, from different time slots.

There are pool shots where ALL the balls go into different pockets, right? That doesn’t contradict anything… but if you insisted that there is no way for more than one ball to end up in any pocket, that would be wrong.

Devil’s advocate mode:

The genomes were identical. The environment, positioning, cell contents and concentrations and timings were not. Plenty of scope for later variation even if there was no variation front-loaded by design.

DAM: definitely.

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No worries, I was just tossing out food for thought. :slightly_smiling_face:

That would imply not only were the genomes front loaded with biological information but somehow all physical features of the universe were somehow front loaded 13.5 billion years ago too. I can’t think of a plausible physical method for that to happen. Having God / Intelligent Designer continually tweaking the physical environment to get the front loaded genome to evolve in a certain direction would explain things but then that wouldn’t be all front loading.

DAM: No need to tweak anything, the initial set-up was designed so that correct physical environment would emerge.

Wrong question.

It should be:

“What if God designs using processes that appear to us as random?”

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Yes. That is correct. I believe even @Eddie would agree with that statement.

If God is omniscient (and for most Christians he is), he would avoid the tweaking by doing all His planning before the Big Bang.

Then comes the Free Will folks… what about if humans do something completely different from God’s will?

Yes… but if he is omniscient, he knew they would do that, and he would plan accordingly.

Now, some Free Will advocates would bring up the “Golf Problem”: sometimes there is absolutely no way to make the hole from where the ball is lying. If the Christian rejects the idea that God would come up with the exactly the right Front Loading for all His Ends, then this would be where God might do a miraculous tweak here and there.

It isn’t crucial to our discussions that God must avoid “miraculous tweaking”. From a conventional Christian viewpoint, there is nothing wrong with God doing so … since he is constantly customizing human experiences through prayer.

So Behe’s Billiards Shot Scenario provides an excellent basis for discussion, whether it is the complete answer or not.

The problem is not the Billiards Shot. The problem is how does Behe explain mutations that could be brilliant … vs. mutations that seem to be awful! My solution is that God arranges for all mutations. But Behe’s latest book doesn’t sound compatible with my solution.

@nwrickert,

Generally, I expect that most of these processes APPEAR to us as random. I don’t think it matters a bit whether they appear random or not.

I think both questions deserve a hearing.

And regardless, if the answer to either is “yes”, how does this affect the pursuits of ID theorists?

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Great question. Exactly the sort of thing Behe would be addressing if he were an actual scientist.

He doesn’t address it. The conclusion to be drawn seems obvious.

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@Timothy_Horton (and @Faizal_Ali ):

You are NOW using the term “Front Loaded” in its older, more flawed sense.

@Eddie and I do not use the phrase “Front Loaded” to mean genetic content hiding dormant in the chromosomes of a simpler creature.

We don’t mean there are 12 different “types” of E. coli hiding inside the population of common ancestors.

When we use the term “front - loaded”, we mean “pre-planned design” before the moment of the Big Bang.

And what is that, exactly? Or as exactly as you can manage?

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@Faizal_Ali,

What is that? God comes up with a master plan for nature to unfold. It requires the exact positioning of photons and gluons and quarks, trajectories, energy levels and so on. And then: BANG!!!

Naturally, since all eternity is but a moment to God (in the Christian viewpoint), it doesn’t take patience for the plan to unfold, if You are God.