Perry Marshall: What is Random?

As a side note I will mention that one area in which the general public is becoming aware that mutations are NOT “all as equally unlikely as the other” is when they get their Y-DNA reports from companies like FamilyTreeDNA. The reports include percentage probabilities of any two persons in the studies sharing a MRCA within a given number of generations—and an asterisk after such calculations always reminds the reader that each STR has differing likelihoods depending upon the given mutation. (In other words, some mutations are more likely than others. Thus, a customer might see a list of people on the report who all share a Genetic Distance of 2 from the subject—yet the probabilities of a MRCA within a given number of generations all differ.)

1 Like