Perry Marshall: What is Random?

But we should note that they are not random with respect to location, direction, etc.–only with respect to fitness.

1 Like

They are not random with respect to fitness.

Perry Marshall – Young Earth Creationist.

If it walks like a YEC and quacks like a YEC, then it’s a YEC.

Honestly, @Perry_Marshall , I don’t know whether you are a YEC. But you supposedly are an engineer. And an engineer should be able to do better than that post you linked.

Are you willing to discuss that post, in detail, here at Peaceful Science?

Please do elaborate.

Are you claiming that Luria and Delbruck were wrong?

Perry,

Pointing me to that link shows me that you do indeed have major misunderstandings, but it does not explain your appending of the adjective “evolutionary” to the noun “mutations.” So what’s the point? In your view, are there non-evolutionary mutations too?

Just read here: Mutation is Biased Towards Fitness.

I think we’re just using different definitions of bias in this context. I am using the one demonstrated by Luria and Delbruck.

In the sense that you are using the term bias, aren’t mutations biased overwhelmingly towards neutrality over fitness?

1 Like

Maybe, maybe not.

The issue is that, speaking precisely, mutations are not actually “random with respect to fitness” (though a better way to say it is “independent” with respect to fitness). There is an interrelationship between mutations and fitness. There are patterns in mutations. We’ve known this since we first observed mutations. There is nothing there. Saying they are “random with respect to fitness” is as misleading as saying “common descent produces a perfect tree.” Both statements are not strictly true, even if they do have some truth in them. It is easy to demonstrate violations of both claims, and these violations have also been known for a very very long time. No surprises here, unless we are relying on the ignorance of our audience.

While I understand why scientists sometimes say “random with respect to fitness” and “common descent produces a perfect tree,” the sloppiness in these statements just contributes to confusion. I’d rather just be precise, acknowledging up front that these are the general rules, but there are exceptions. Life falls into a tree, but not a perfect tree. Mutations in some sense are largely independent of fitness, but this is not what we mean at all when we say “random,” nor are they totally independent of fitness. These reduced claims are accurate and true, and therefore much more difficult to strawman in an argument with ID or EES.

1 Like

@nwrickert and @Mercer

Could you say WHY Perry’s post is so frought with errors? @swamidass has said enough in previous threads, but caling Perry a YEC is not a refutation, in fact, it just means that apparently people use the term now to mean “I think you’re ridiculous.”

And perhaps @Perry_Marshall shouldn’t use the phrase “evolutionary mutation.” Fine. Why is his post wrong? I’m very curious what you have to say.

1 Like

@mark I agree that calling him a YEC is not helpful, nor is it even true. At the moment we are waiting for him to participate in a conversation with us. The door is wide open. He seems resolutely unwilling.

I assume that @Perry_Marshall is not a YEC. However, he is using YEC language, chosen by YECs to ridicule evolution. As an engineer, he should know better.

And then he goes on to say:

Yet light is electromagnetic noise. Sunlight is produced by apparently random nuclear events on the sun.

A world with no noise would be so rigidly deterministic, as to preclude any possibility of life as we know it.

Yes, I understand that noise can be a problem in electronic systems. Yet oscillators are important components of modern electronics. An oscillator depends on amplified feedback to sustain the oscillation, but it also depends on noise to start the oscillations.

Perry is too quick to condemn randomness, and perhaps not sufficiently aware of its importance.

3 Likes

So … anyone want a statistics lecture on strong and weak convergence?

Actually, I’d need to do a bit of review first to get it right. The short version is that in settings where large numbers of random variations accumulate, the result may be far more predictable.

5 Likes

How did this come up in the thread? ETA: Looking again, I see you are referring to role of noise.

Regardless, if you start with Prob(limits) versus limits(Prob) you are on a slippery slope to real analysis. Do you really want to go there?

How about instead talking about conditional independence and whether one can argue that mutations are conditionally independent of (ie “random” wrt ) fitness in the environment, conditional on the factors that Joshua notes.

1 Like

No, not really, it not my strength. My intent is that randomness does not imply chaos; we can reliably expect certain types of convergence.

3 Likes

OK. This is more Neil’s territory than mine anyway. I am sure he has something to say.

1 Like

The main one is omitting any mention of selection.

I probably mentioned this example earlier in the thread, but I will repeat it here.

The game of craps is a good example to use. The chances of rolling a 2 or 12 is really low, and rolling a 7 is much more probable than any other result when rolling two die. However, if you place a bet on getting a 2 or 12 this does not increase the chances of rolling a 2 or 12, nor do you increase the chance of rolling a 7 by making a bet that would win on a 7. The bets on the table don’t influence the result of the dice. In this case, the roll is random with respect to fitness.

Mutations appear to be the same. There is no detectable connection between what the organism needs and the mutations that happen. Some mutations are more likely than others, but it doesn’t seem to have a direct connection to the specific needs of an organism in a specific environment.

1 Like

8 posts were split to a new topic: Garte: The Meaning of “Random” Mutation

In the post Are Evolutionary Mutations Random? Or Are They Engineered for Success? (which I have posted here several times) I show several experiments such as McClintock’s in which what the organism needs is directly connected to the mutations. I cover this extensively in my book which further references a large number of similar experiments. I encourage you to read the referenced literature.

I will engage further once Joshua provides his definition of the term randomness. His definition and mine appear to be far apart.