This helps me see the motivation for preferring “probability” to “plausibility” when confronting statements that claim to be an “argument” for or against something. I understand. It just doesn’t work for me, or perhaps I should say I don’t think it will ever matter.
To me, most importantly, it’s hard to see why such a thought process should be “challenged.” It is, to me, transparently not an argument. It’s a post hoc rationalization. In some sense it is disrespectful to the person to treat their thought as an “argument” that can be “challenged.” If we want to help the person escape this place, where they are likely trapped by sociological and psychological forces, we perhaps ought not focus at all on faux “arguments” like that one. Nothing will come of that.
But also this is why I think plausibility is the first thing to discuss when the existence of gods is the topic. Without establishing something remotely reasonable about the main character, discussing the probability of its existence is simply madness. This is one of the main points of the common atheist claim that everyone is an atheist (as a stance) toward essentially every god in the universe. This is the main point of my comments here at PS about various other gods that humans “believe in” to varying extents. To even entertain a “calculation” of a “probability” that the god of Kenneth Copeland or Paula White “exists” is to commit oneself to at least a few outgroups from among the universe of gods that deserve a chance. When, instead, we mean “a nice version of the American evangelical god” when we say “God,” we show our calculations to be something more akin to cynical apologetics.
In short: “probability” without plausibility might seem reasonable for the gods that are most popular on PS, but the whole conversation rests on ignoring Russell’s teapot, Nessie, Thor I mean Loki, Mórrígan, Bob*, Dumbledore, Holy Supreme Wind, Titania, and innumerable other gods who we are somehow comfortable excluding despite the nonzero probability that their fury will end us all. We do this, knowing the risks, because the existence of these gods is not plausible.