Fixation occurs at roughly the mutation rate.
the probability of occurrence of a function that occurs once in every 10^10
If the probability is 1 in 10^10, and there are 10^10 opportunities for the event to occurs, the probability of that event occurring at least once is about 63%. @Art ’s liter of pondwater is more than enough to take the probability to 1.0.
I present the math involved here:
Continuing the discussion from Comments on Gpuccio: Functional Information Methodology :
Pardon me, but my pet peeve has been perked! @AllenWitmerMiller , bring me my soapbox! @Gpuccio here, but only because this is the latest example of an error I see regularly, and darnit, I’m getting tired of correcting some basic probability calculations. The error is, probabilities do not multiply this way.
If X is some event and the probability of X occurring in a single trial is 0.1, then the probability of X occurring in two trials generates the following probability distribution:
The probability X does not occur in either of two trials: (1.0-0.1)\times(1.0 - 0.1) = 0.9 \times 0.9 = 0.81
The probability X occurs in the first trial but not the second: (0.1)\times(1.0 - 0.1) = 0.1 \times 0.9 = 0.09
The probability X does not occur in the first trial but does in the second: (1.0-0.1)\times(0.1) = 0.9 \times 0.1 = 0.09
The probability X occurs in both the first…
2 Likes