Testing Jeanson's Model: Y Chromosome Mutation Rates

Could you tell me exactly where (at what time) in which video he talks about population growth? It really doesn’t have much to do with mutation rate.

Here, starting at 33:24 Smoking gun of human history (Part 6) - YouTube

I don’t understand what he’s trying to demonstrate there.

He says creationists and evolutionists agree on the human population trends over the past 3000 years.

And the evidence from the Y chromosome is consistent with those trends.

Therefore, humans have existed for only about 6000 years, and not hundreds of thousands of years.

He lost me at the last point. Did you understand what he was saying?

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Yes, he’s saying historians agree on population growth throughout known history. That population growth creates a specific curve.

Then he’s saying he used his y-chromosome mutation rate to create a family tree, and then takes all of the males from the family tree to estimate population growth throughout history.

His curve matches the historians’ curve.


How does this show that humans popped out of dust 6000 years ago, and don’t share common ancestry with another species on earth?

That is not a valid way to estimate population size, and it is frankly stunning if this is in fact what he did.


Here is Jeanson’s “paper“ where he generates all these curves, it’s more detailed than the video clip.

It’s really quite bizarre.

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Oh wow…

This is what he did. I’m nearly speechless. This is an indefensible approach on so many levels…so many…it is hard to know where to start…

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That was intensely painful. Jeanson is making up facts and fitting other made-up facts to them. It also has nothing to do with mutation rates. You understand that Jeanson’s force-fitting of the Y-chromosome tree to his model means that many human populations diverged from each other after 1500, right? But he doesn’t talk about the simple departure of that part of the data from reality. Further, he claims that it’s universally agreed that the population curve fits what he shows, but he shows a world population of only a few million in 1000 BC, and nobody agrees with that.

Perhaps most importantly, his initial assumption is wrong: the Y-chromosome tree doesn’t track population size. You would get a similar tree even if the population hadn’t changed at all in thousands of years. Jeanson seems completely unaware of coalescence theory, which you should look up.



Not popped out of the dust 6000 years ago. That only 8 people were alive 4500 years ago after the flood. Gotta get literal Bible history straight :wink:

The women likely shared common ancestry with others who died. The men didn’t, so y-chromosome history will only cover them.

This is just painful to watch. He just doesn’t know what he is talking about on this one, not even a little.

And there is this too…

He does say in the video it’s useless for evolution because it’s too small of a timescale, yeah. Otherwise, idk what’s the problem is but feel free to enlighten me :joy:

It doesn’t even make sense from within YEC. There is no way even other YEC scientists (e.g. Sanford, Wood, Carter) are going to agree with this analysis. It is just too way out there.

No, that’s not the problem. Even if you assume that the root of the human tree is much shallower than we think, i.e. even if you assume YEC, his method does not work. This shows Jeanson to be comically inept, even in his own terms. You desperately need to find a new hero.


Ahhh I wouldn’t hold my breath on that one.

Oh, OK, I get what he’s trying to say.

Well, no matter because the scientists here have confirmed that his facts are just very, very wrong.

Sorry, the men didn’t share common ancestry with anyone who died in the flood? Explain.

Look at Todd Wood @thoughtful. He is a YEC. We have our disagreements with him, but his competence is much higher as is his integrity. He is worth your time:

I doubt they will denounce it.

Rather they will be very quiet about it. If you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything. If Jeanson were on to something, however, that would not be the case. They would be trumpeting it. The silence in this case is damning.

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Silly population geneticists wasting their time developing tools like PSMC and ABC - if only Jeanson could have told them all years ago that all they have to do is count the number of branches in a phylogeny to estimate population sizes through time!


I’m fixin’ to do some fairly complex (to me) demographic inference using in the relatively near future. I think I may just use Jeanson’s method instead. I’m sure my committee will be cool with it…

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