The Failures of Mathematical Anti-Evolutionism

[Roy (34-year veteran)]

I’ve restored part of my post that was omitted by @lee_merrill when he responded:

@lee_merrill

@Roy

All this talk of before-the-fact vs after-the-fact with poker is a smokescreen to hide that whenever you talk about biological systems instead of card games, you’re computing the probability of something that has already happened - because if it hadn’t happened you wouldn’t know what probability to compute - hence it’s after-the-fact.

Feel free to counter this by computing the before-the-fact probability of evolving something that did not actually evolve. Until then, you’re just bait-and-switching.

My point is that viewed before the fact, the probability of an event can be less than 1, whereas after the fact, it is 1 or 0. So we have to pick one perspective, and stick with it. I choose “before the fact”, because that’s really the probability of interest, in card games, and in biological systems.

So you’re not going to calculate any before-the-fact probabilities of anything other than what you know evolved. All your biological system calculations are done after-the-fact, and your claims otherwise are untrue. You are bait-and-switching.