Wow! “Con Man.” There’s a phrase I haven’t heard in ages! My parents’ generation used to use it all the time, but I don’t think I’ve ever heard anyone under 40 or 50 use the phrase. You’re showing your age, George.
How “most” people draw their Venn diagrams doesn’t concern me. Only the correct Venn diagram concerns me. And the only people capable of drawing a correct one are those who know large numbers of ID folks fairly well, from long and frequent contact.
A Venn diagram showing ID and Creationism would have to be refined, with three circles, one for ID, one for OEC, and one for YEC. The overlap zone between OEC and YEC would be significant, but not as large as one might expect, because of the sharp differences between OECs and YECs over the age of the earth, limited microevolution, and literalness in reading Genesis (the OECs tending more to concordism, the YECs to treating the words as photographic and audio recordings of past events). The overlap zones between both OEC and YEC and ID would be larger, because virtually all OECs are onside with ID, and most YECs as well (there are some YEC holdouts who can’t forgive ID for allowing evolutionists into the tent, and allowing Jews, Muslims, agnostics, and so on).
The ID-alone part would be relatively small, but would contain some of the most important ID leaders, such as Behe and Denton (and possibly Sternberg, based on his last public statements). It would contain virtually all Catholic ID supporters, of whom there are many, including several key Discovery people. It would also contain Jewish ID supporters such as Klinghoffer, a number of Muslim ID supporters (especially in countries like Turkey), and even a few Hindu ID supporters I know of. It would also contain some agnostic ID supporters, Deist ID supporters, and believe it or not, I even know of one ID supporter who calls himself an atheist (not a Dawkins-style atheist, but an “agnostic atheist”). There are also a number of “undeclareds” at Discovery who I believe, from private conversation, to belong in the ID-alone part, i.e., ID but not creationist.
If you include “not quite ID proponents, but sympathetic friends and allies”, then the number would increase, because people like David Berlinski (certainly no creationist, but an agnostic) would be included.
So yes, this group (ID but non-creationist) is larger than 3 people in a van and your Uncle Tommy. Even at Discovery alone the contingent is larger than that, and among the hundreds of other ID folks I’ve talked to over the past 11 years, there are many more.
In any case, I was talking about potential converts to ID more than current defenders of it. My point was that as soon as you say the word “Jesus” in a book on biological origins, you automatically lose millions of readers, who will say, “This is religion, not science, and I’m interested only in science.” That’s why Creation Science arguments rarely won any adherents who were not already fundamentalists. It’s because ID books don’t insist that you have to accept Jesus that they can be read without religious discomfort by secular accountants, secular lawyers, secular schoolteachers, secular civil servants, etc. An agnostic dentist who wouldn’t be caught dead with The Genesis Flood on his bookshelf might have a slot for Darwin’s Black Box or Darwin’s Doubt.
I grew up among, and still live among, educated, successful middle-class people who think of creationism and fundamentalism as religious opiates for the intellectually and culturally challenged. There is no way on earth that they are going to read a book about origins that smells of literalism or fundamentalism. But they can read the books of Behe and Meyer without ever seeing the name of Jesus or the word “Bible”. They might not be convinced by the arguments of Behe and Meyer, but at least no Jesus-talk scares them away from reading them. So if you want to challenge the Darwinian account of origins in front of these people, ID literature, not creationist literature, is the way to go.
Behe’s first book sold, I think, over a quarter of a million copies. If even only 1% of those who liked the book were non-creationists (a conservative estimate), that’s 2,500 – enough to fill over 600 of your 4-person vans. So your estimate is a wee bit skimpy. And of course, so is 2,500, as an estimate of how many “undecideds” have been won over to ID after reading ID arguments.