I’m no statistician, but (as you say) surely the whole business of assessing priors to such events based on gut-probabilities is totally irrelavant when the core questio is not “Did Christ happen to rise from the dead,” but “Is the central event of history that God raised Christ uniquely from the dead.”
The events are of a different character altogether: it is unlikely that this particular comment post should appear in the universe, but given me as a rational agent participating in the discussion here, it is not unlikely at all.
So, if God was raising Christ from the dead, how probable is it that many unusual events should be associated with it in terms of providing meaning, drawing attention to it and so forth?The answer is close to unity.
We must always remember that there are no such things as absolute probabilities, but only probabilities as measures of our uncertainty under a specific set of circumstances. In this case, all the “low probabilities” hinge on the core question, “Is there a God who raised Christ from the dead?”
There is no objective probability for that - God either 100% exists, or 100% doesn’t. Any probability is a measure of an individual’s belief or unbelief - that is, of their existing level of persuasion. Such measurements cannot be used, therefore, to persuade.