I haven’t read everything here carefully, but some comments
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The neutral theory, e.g. the claim that the vast majority of substitutions [fixed?] are neutral, seems to be contentious - e.g. Kern & Hahn 2018 ‘The Neutral Theory in Light of Selection’. But it is likely that you, @swamidass know much that I don’t about this.
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“Occam’s razor” is not simple @John_Harshman … see e.g. “Occam’s Razor’s” book by Eliott Sober. I tend to think that theism is ultimately simpler than naturalism, as naturalism leaves a bunch of aspects of the world (at least some of: contingent reality, moral facts, fine tuning, applicability of mathematics, the mapping between mental and physical states) as ‘brute facts’, whereas theism potentially brings them together (the term consilience is useful here, from William Whewell, a big influence on Darwin). This is outside the realm of science, but still in the realm of evidence and reason.
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If, say, the genotype-phenotype map was (really) not friendly towards an unguided evolutionary search being able to result in interesting outcomes, this would be some kind of evidence for the idea that the search was not unguided. Conceivably then, the kind of information we are learning about the mechanisms of evolution could be relevant to the question of guidance, it seems to me.