# Does probability refute evolution?

#### Does probability refute evolution?

http://www.sciencemeetsreligion.org/evolution/probability.php

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I think probability concepts favour what is likely/possible and crush what is impossible or unlikely.
Therefore probability would work in defeating evolutionism if evolutionism must use math.
I see evolutionism using math because it calculates mutations effects.
So what is the probability chance mutations can turn a fish into a rhino?
Impossible or possible by probability!?

The mantra is â€śinevitable, given enough time.â€ť
Of course, thatâ€™s the problem. There isnâ€™t enough. The universe had a beginning at a finite point in time a mere 13.8 or so billion years agoâ€¦ not enough time to account for the appearance of the first cell, let alone what you ask.
Notice the non-sequitur â€śturtles all the way downâ€ť nature of the claim:
â€śâ€¦these biomolecules were the result of a long series of intermediate steps over the eons, each useful in a previous biological context.â€ť
There canâ€™t be a â€śprevious biological contextâ€ť prior to abiogenesis.
Perhaps you meant â€śbiochemical?â€ť Same problem. At most, you could hypothesize about prebiotic chemical precursors that would eventually be replaced by biochemical ones.

actually the mutations are indeed random. and we know that every protein requires many amino acids for its minimal function. so basically till we get all of them in place this is indeed a random chance. therefore i think that the notion in the article is wrong.

Is 11 many?

actually even a single amino acid may be functional. i refer to most proteins, which contains more then 200 aa. in this case 40-50 aa will not help. so if you want to evolve such a protein it can be done by small steps.

Dâ€™oh!

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i actually meant â€ścant be doneâ€ť.

yep. my mystake. i should say â€śmost proteinsâ€ť instead of â€śevery proteinâ€ť.

The probability of a fish turning directly into a rhino is as good as zero. They only one making this claim are Creationists.

It depends on where you draw that line for pre-biotic. We know that amino acids can form in non-biological (abiotic?) environments,

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But, for example, Miller-Urey proved to be based upon erroneous assumptions as to the nature of the early earthâ€™s atmosphere.
The spark discharge experiment didnâ€™t actually mimic the conditions that existed back then.
You have to find the origin of those early amino acids extraterrestrially, as per Frederick Hoyle.
But then you still have the problem of homochirality to solve.
Just about the only phenomenon in nature that renders any significant amounts of non-racemic mixtures of such is the presence of cirularly-polarized light, as from certain interstellar environments.
Weâ€™re getting into the territory of dwindling odds, now.

I wasnâ€™t referring to Miller-Urey in particular. There are a great number of studies showing how the components of life might assemble in prebiotic conditions - or even in space. This is one of the major focuses of research in abiogenesis. I could give you references to some of these if you like, but I really donâ€™t think it is controversial.

If you wish to say we do not know exactly what the conditions were at the time and place abiogenesis occurred, that would be true, but we have some idea of that conditions were necessary.

When the same experiments were done in updated models of Earthâ€™s early atmosphere they also saw the formation of amino acids. In fact, there are reports that even RNA is produced in such experiments. A few references for you:

https://www.pnas.org/content/114/17/4306

These odds donâ€™t apply to the evolution of new proteins in living populations.

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If you wish to make statements like that, then I feel very justified to ask you to show your calculations. I donâ€™t mean that as a challenge, because itâ€™s pretty clear that you havenâ€™t done any calculations, so itâ€™s silly to ask for them. If you mean you donâ€™t think it is likely, thatâ€™s a fair statement. But If you are making any argument from incredulity based on math, then itâ€™s fair to show the math and the assumption behind the argument.

/mathrant

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So are you claiming that no relevant work has been done since 1952?

Doesnâ€™t your citation of Miller-Urey, from 1952, as an â€śexampleâ€ť unequivocally demonstrate that creationists and scientists are definitely not looking at the same evidence?

Now? â€śNowâ€ť is not 1952, Guy.

In terms of probability, though, thereâ€™s nearly a 100% probability that any creationist pretending to have based her/his conclusion as based on the evidence will cite Miller-Urey whenever abiogenesis comes up.

The odds are pretty much zero that youâ€™re going to really get into the evidence, though, right?

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Did you guys completely miss my point that the â€śoddsâ€ť were about homochirality?

Yep. I still donâ€™t see how it applies even when you point it out.

Iâ€™m sure homochirality adds to your sense of incredulity here, but I donâ€™t see how it becomes a mathematical argument.

IOW, Iâ€™m not criticizing what you think Iâ€™m criticizing.

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I didnâ€™t see your â€śodds of homochiralityâ€ť calculations along with support for the assumptions you used. Can you please repost them? Thanks.

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Iâ€™m pretty sure that Guy didnâ€™t intend to be taken literally, so I can forgive his not having calculations. The question becomes, just what does he really mean?

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How does any significant quantity of prebiotic molecules, or even amino acids, come to rest on the earth, so significantly skewed against a racemic mixture of forms, that life just happens to â€śassembleâ€ť homochirally? Without homochiral (dia)stereospecificity, you canâ€™t build strands of information-bearing RNA or DNA. What proposals are there that wed this scenario with a significant bombardment by comets of the early earth, which traversed an area of space which was characterized by circularly-polarized light?
I donâ€™t have to supply calculations to know how vanishingly small the odds are for this kind of homochiral scenario.
Thatâ€™s why Hoyle himself had to call it â€śdirected panspermia.â€ť