I think your assessment here is right on the point. Probabilities are to some extent a measure of our ignorance, as from God’s POV, nature is fundamentally deterministic.
(Of course, there are all the caveats we discussed in Predictability Problems in Physics, although it is far from clear that quantum randomness has any effect on macro-level events, and the other cases of non-predictability or non-determinism in other areas of physics including classical mechanics are edge cases which probably don’t affect the majority of everyday phenomena.)
I also suspect this might be why the use of Bayesian probability in assessing history often results in widely divergent results. There are simply too many unknown mechanisms that are at play in human history, so it is little more than a tool to assess our personal, subjective sense of whether we should believe something or not.