I take “likely” to mean a high probability, presumably greater than 50%. Is that not what you mean?
Because I don’t know what you mean by it.
But is this complete isolation? Is there (or historically was there) no leakage? I’m dubious.
Is it not more likely that they would be among the “most” than among the few? We know that (according to the story) they had descendants for many generations. Based on the model, all such people are the ancestors of everyone.
Yes.
Before the coming of the “white man” and the increasing modernization of Africa, extremely likely.
There is certainly leakage at present and the caste system has been abolished in many areas. Historically, its very unlikely there were any leakages.
Of course, but that’s still an assumption.
Which story? Is it the one where those descendants died in a global flood, except 8 individuals?
Assuming they are among the “most”.
Yes, what? Yes it’s not what you mean or yes it is what you mean? If it isn’t what you mean, what do you mean? If it is what you mean, you can’t have two mutually exclusive probabilities both greater than 50%.
I have strong doubts, especially continuously so over 4000 years. Do the genetic data show complete isolation?
I’m dubious, over 4000 years. Are you discounting circuitous routes, e.g. low caste into outside population, outside population into high caste?
True, but one must make assumptions in any model. The output of a model isn’t certainty but a probability. The probability is very high, and that’s all we need.
I believe GAE does not consider a global flood or even a regional flood that kills all but 8 descendants.
Yes. Forgive my sloppy thinking. Now I know that A&E must be among the “most” whose lineages didn’t go extinct, everything is cleared up.
There is no genetic data but its very likely some Osu lineages were snuffed out.
I took other routes of gene flow into consideration. In Igbo land we practise “Iju ese” for soon-to-be couples: it involves making inquiries into the backgrounds of the couples including their genealogical ancestries. I am not saying this was 100% foolproof but it was extremely effective at curtailing marriages between freeborns and the osu back then.
If that “outside population” did not have an osu caste system, then the osu would freely interbreed with them. However, if the “high caste” knew about this, that would stop intermarriage between them and the descendants of the unions between the osu and outside population.
Absolutely.
So what story were you talking about?
Why is this likely? Not understanding the population structure here.
What about freeborns and members of different tribes who may have in the past interbred with Osu? If there’s no intermarriage with other tribes, that sounds like you’re claiming that Igbo are completely genetically isolated from all other populations.
It’s the Adam & Eve story. Creation of Adam, the rib, the apple, the talking snake, the expulsion from the garden. In particular, original sin. That’s all GAE is for.
One reason is small population size. Another reason is living in a region (such as a whole State) where the caste system is strictly adhered.
Their descendants will be regarded as Osu and shunned if the “high caste” knew their history. Please read:
I said there was, for some lineages.
Fine.
I don’t understand why that results in extinction.
If. Let’s remember that Osu ancestry eventually spreads through that entire tribe, so any intertribe marriage will be to a person with Osu ancestry, even if nobody knows it.
Smaller populations tend to die faster in the face of lineage-extinguishing adversity. If some of these small populations of osu are isolated from other osu communities within a region where the caste system is fully in place that should further drive extinction due to no interbreeding with other osu, freeborns in a resident community and freeborns in other tribes.
Granted.
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