Group Selection leads to a top-down human origin story

Preamble:

My recent experience with Peaceful Science has been that my posts evoke no response. No acceptance, no rejection, just silence. I put that down to an old acquaintance having trashed my reputation, based on earlier dealings on Richard Dawkins.net (or was it .com?) and on Ratskep. Well, no problem. I enjoy writing essays on a little-read Substack series called African Genesis II. There I developed a working relation with AI where I would use it for information and fact checking, while ignoring its suggestions to write the essay itself. Then I give the AI a copy of a post once it has been published. Often the AI response has been interesting enough to be posted as an appendix. In the case of the post below, I rewrote a few paragraphs. The edited text won’t be read much, as my few readers usually pick up the post in a day or so from email or Linkedin or Facebook. But I thought of also dropping the edited post in here, just on the chance PS actually picks it up.

African Genesis II as a top-down human origin story

Are we owners or owned?work in here,

1. Introduction

When I asked ChatGPT to review “The hard-to-kill ape and a theory of living boundaries” it told me that I had been rediscovering an existing scientific view that humans can meaningfully be analysed as superorganisms under some conditions. The AI cited E.O. Wilson’s 2012 book “The Social Conquest of Earth”. Wilson was an eminent (Harvard) entomologist who argued that humans are organised more like termites and ants than like most mammals. He pointed out that important terms “soldier, worker, queen, war” are used only with humans and such eusocial insects. And eusocial populations now dominate the Earth’s terrestrial animal biomass as “superorganisms”.

It’s true that much of what I have been arguing in African Genesis II was better said by Wilson more than a decade ago. Some of what he argued I hadn’t known, some I had forgotten and some I hadn’t understood in the first place.

Wilson’s 2012 book was based on a 2010 article in Nature “The evolution of Eusociality” by Martin A Nowak , Corina E Tarnita, Edward O Wilson. It is now available here: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3279739/

2. Mapping African Genesis II onto Wilson’s theory of group evolution of superorganisms.

Wilson et al suggested that “the full theory of eusocial evolution consists of a series of stages”, which they then listed five. The arguments in African Genesis II map onto these stages, centred on figure 1, which ChatGPT called “the elephant in the room: the abrupt onset and long persistence of encephalization signals a regime shift in selective pressures, not a gradual tweak to an ape-like niche”

Figure 1: Two-trend graph of hominin brain growth.

These five stages in the evolution of eusocial behaviour are given below, with my commentary mapping African Genesis II onto it.

1.** Wilson et al: “1. The formation of groups.”**

A plausible model for the behaviour of Australopiths and their ancestors, are baboons, who have often been found associated with their fossils. Baboons forage by day in groups. At night they select group nesting sites that are as safe as possible from predators, particularly tree-agile leopards.

2.** Wilson et al: “The occurrence of a minimum and necessary combination of preadaptive traits, causing the groups to be tightly formed. In animals at least, the combination includes a valuable and defensible nest”.**

According to the hard-to-kill ape theory, australopiths used hand weapons to keep predators at a distance during the day. At night they slept within defensible nests such as thorn barricades, or barricaded cave entrances. If the boundary was defended by relatively effective young males then they would be at highest risk. If one were killed, that might change the male hierarchy without a cost to the group’s ability to breed. But if the boundary were breached, the valuable female breeding stock and infants would be threatened. Infants, females and elderly would be better protected in a group with a defended boundary.

3.** Wilson et al: “The appearance of mutations that prescribe the persistence of the group, most likely by the silencing of dispersal behavior. Evidently, a durable nest remains a key element in maintaining the prevalence. Primitive eusociality may emerge immediately due to springloaded preadaptations”.**

The labour involved in building a barricade without sharp tools would encourage using the same nesting site for a long time. A barricade would need maintenance to repair deteriorated material and to strengthen revealed weaknesses.

Figure 1 shows the Taung Child near the abrupt start of a 2-million-year period of 20 times more rapid and continuous brain growth, for which australopiths were preadapted in having (1) short-muzzle skulls not subject to biting stresses, (2) infants well protected from predation, enabling the long-helplessness associated with plastic brain maturing after birth.

Figure 1 also implies murkier earlier preadaptions for the separation of bipedal, short-canine, less tree-adapted hominins, from their ape cousins. Arboreal chimps were preadapted to become hand weapon users by being large relative to their predators, having strong hand grips, and being familiar with wood. Plausible triggers for rapid adaptation into becoming effective users of effective wooden weapons would be climate change that made it attractive to forage on the savanna beyond immediate refuge in trees, or the appearance of dispersed fruiting trees. Wood-living creatures came with their familiar wood onto the savanna, but used in novel ways.

4.** Wilson et al*: “Emergent traits caused by the interaction of group members are shaped through natural selection by environmental forces”.***

ChatGPT explained that Wilson was referring here to Natural Selection acting on differences in fitness between whole colonies (superorganisms), not just between individuals or genes. For example, different efficiencies in hive thermoregulation in different competing bee hives lead to individual bees in fitter hives doing a better job of fanning the hive. The emergent trait affects group fitness. Superorganisms act as “Darwinian individuals”.

That human language is a group-level trait is demonstrated obliquely by the observation that, especially in regions with long-persisting national boundaries, those are also language boundaries ––people in France speak French.

ChatGPT told me of several theories about how language could have evolved, citing Robin Dunbar (language evolved from social grooming) and Michael Tomasello (humans evolved a unique capacity for shared intentionality). But an overarching point is simply that language has turned out to be immensely adaptive, in a species whose biomass, with our livestock, now makes up 96% of the global mammalian biomass. Consider how non-competitive a non-speaking hominin group would be today, supposing some virus were to attack the speech-centres of their brains.

Group selection provides a simple explanation of why, considering how adaptive language has turned out to be, only humans can talk. Only humans formed bounded groups that competed with each other.

5.** Wilson et al: Multilevel selection drives changes in the colony life cycle and social structures, often to elaborate extremes.**

ChatGPT explained that by “elaborate extremes” Wilson meant that “Once selection shifts decisively to the group level, natural selection is willing to sacrifice almost everything about the individual organism”. For example, ant and termite superorganisms independently evolved kamikaze-like workers that explode in a crisis (autothysis).

Humans can also be groomed to sacrifice themselves for a greater end, but using a language-borne ideology rather than genetic variation between workers and soldiers, etc. Language can then be seen as partly an alternative route for optimising superorganism fitness by structuring behaviour- martyr, worker, soldier, leader. From that perspective, human societies appear to be riddled with important organic ideologies that are difficult for the individual to escape and which can be attractive to serve.

3. The role of ideology in the reception of group selection.

ChatGPT categorised the reception of Wilson’s group selection theory like this:

1. Among evolutionary biologists: hostile, sometimes ferocious

2. Among biologists outside the narrow theory wars: mixed to respectful

3. Among philosophers and social theorists: surprisingly positive

4. Among the general public: very well received

According to Wikipedia, "the Nature article was controversial, with many experts arguing against its conclusions, including an “outraged response” later in the same journal by 137 authors. Richard Dawkins wrote a harshly critical review for Prospect…"

ChatGPT provided these criticisms by Dawkins:

“Group selection is a sort of benevolent-looking theoretical refuge for people who don’t understand natural selection.”
— Richard Dawkins, The Extended Phenotype (1982)

And another, from The Selfish Gene (2nd ed., 1989), explicitly dismissive in tone:

“The kind of group selection which assumes that individuals will restrain themselves for the good of the group is almost certainly wrong.”

These reactions point to a threatened establishment insistence that evolution must be seen as driven at the most atomic level of the anthropomorphised gene, or the gene’s effects on its environment as its extended phenotype. The polar opposite to this position would be that evolution is driven at the higher ecological level as Wilson heretically suggested. The arguments in African Genesis II are that “top-down” models have been left unexplored precisely because they are top-down.

A top-down origin story isn’t necessarily as benevolent as Dawkins suggests. It implies that human individuals are somewhat owned, at least by their language and society. That can be difficult for heirs of the Western Enlightenment to accept. And one can easily find examples of bad things done by people who have followed different ideologies, such as the Nazi Fuhrer Principle. But these are inescapable moral dilemmas posed by the real-world human condition.

It’s also possible that it just isn’t all that interesting. Group Selection has been kicking around for decades, and is still (the last I checked) plausible but controversial. Dawkins’ Selfish Gene is mostly out of favor except for special cases. What actually happens is more complex, but we already knew that too. It’s also the third time you have posted nearly the same content.

If you want human discussion, I think you are taking the wrong approach. A post written by AI can also be answered by AI. Here’s what Gemini has to say - (spoilered because I don’t think an AI response is helpful. Please DON’T read it, it’s just to make the point).

Quibble: This could be improved by citing the source for the data in your plot. The plot itself is kind of awful - it looks like the lines were drawn by best guess. Maybe they are regression lines done in Excel, but that is only slightly better better. There is no way to judge the validity of the point the plot is making. I’m being a little picky about this, because stats is my thing. :wink:

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“When I asked chatGPT” stopped reading right there.

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If you’re looking for responses, I have to say that you lost me at “AI.” If you do have a notion you’d like to discuss – one of your own sole authorship, not generated in any part by a chatbot, I will read it.

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You should consider other possible explanations.

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It’s easy to understand why: you have posted uninteresting AI responses to something else that you wrote. You have apparently posted the content here twice before; this (along with the incoherence and lack of links or citations to the context) should have precluded your new post being approved at all. (My opinion.)

For me, it’s not just the use of AI that makes your post unworthy of comment or discussion; it’s the absence of clear ideas and, frankly, the absence of any purpose or theme. My suggestion is that you try to write about an idea (or, better, a question) and spare us the regurgitation of old writings and especially spare us the tedious comments of an AI on those old writings.

I disagree, and so would thousands of biologists. That would be an interesting discussion.

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I thought I might be in trouble for writing that, one way or the other. :sweat_smile: Mea Culpa.
It might be better to say that it oversimplifies, and now I’m going to run away before I get the lambasting I rightfully deserve. :wink:

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Hey, no lambasting intended or planned. I was serious about it being an interesting discussion, maybe not today (swamped) but a worthy topic that our community could engage with lively commentary and disagreement.

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When I’ve asked ChatGPT to help me set up a home Ubuntu server, a far easier task, it led me down numerous, ludicrous rabbit holes.

Why should we care what it says about a very subjective hypothesis (better described as a notion) that comes nowhere close to the status of “theory” in any truly scientific context?

If you’re scientifically illiterate, ChatGPT will tell you whatever you want to hear.

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I’ve had the same problem at with technical questions, where it was hard to pin down how the question should be asked in order to produce a useful answer (that might be a legitimate skill). I’ve also gotten reasonable summaries of big topics. For technical things there is a quick check; either it works or it doesn’t. For other questions I think there is risk of being led astray if you don’t have some basic knowledge of the topic.

And of course, torturous prompting may lead to awful results. When I asked Gemini to give alternatives to @Jay’s post, it gave five quite different answers. AI answers without the prompts used to make the prisoner confess generate them are suspect. Even with the prompts, may not be interesting.

The other appropriate analogy may be the drunkard leaning on a lamppost, using it for support rather than illumination.

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Where I got the data for figure 1 graph. My first try was getting together brain volume and dates of hominin species that I thought were significant, and drew graphs from that. In my second try I asked ChatGPT to select I think 15 most significant finds, with also date of discovery. Then I replaced ranges with midpoint values. And I got practically the same graphs. But from a more neutral source than my first attempt. So I think the data are robust, it would be great to see someone come up with a data point lying off those lines. I do suspect that a third trend line for the last 10 000 years could be drawn, showing decline in brain volume.

I’m no statistician. I’d be happy to forward the spreadsheet, just tell me how.

The linear lines that I fitted are an alternative to a single logarithmic fit, as below. Google search throws up lots of graphs like this, education purposed, with fossil images superimposed. I haven’t seen those criticised for lack of statistical rigor. The fit below excludes fossils discovered in this century. When you include the hobbit and Naledi, the R-squared statistic drops to 0,5

These graphs don’t prove anything, but they do encourage an interpretation that (a) Au. african lived near the nick point of an abrupt start to a sustained 2 my encephalization about 20 times more rapid than before (b) Some species didn’t join in, and Ho. floresiensis in particular looked like they were trying to stay away from the encephalized ones.

Really important. I’ve found that even if I enter strict instructions in the settings, they eventually are ignored. That’s the only really human aspect I can point to. :grinning_face:

Me too, but spotty.

Exactly. Just paste the output.

I’ve read that demanding alternate answers is the key to making it work.

An adversary of mine in a strange labor case ages ago loved that expression—he used it over and over again to characterize our reliance upon a particular case, and it got so tiresome that somewhere around the 38th time he said we relied upon it as a drunk did upon a lamppost, I found that I could sort of hear a wet, low, labored laugh after it … a sort of HURR, HURR, HURR…

And then the District Court ruled in our favor, relying heavily upon that same precedent. And so did the Third Circuit Court of Appeals. Of course, they, too, presumably relied upon it as a drunk did upon a lamppost. So we got the last laugh, albeit not of the variety described above.

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Citations to data sources where you got the numbers from would be polite to those authors..

Then I replaced ranges with midpoint values.

This is OK, and the best you can do in Excel in any case.

The linear lines that I fitted are an alternative to a single logarithmic fit …

I agree a logarithmic fit is not appropriate unless you have data from a single population, which this clearly isn’t. A linear fit isn’t necessarily better, more on that …

The fit below excludes fossils discovered in this century. When you include the hobbit and Naledi, the R-squared statistic drops to 0.5

Definitely not the same population. It would be good to include those points on the plot, and you can leave them out of the regression lines.

Here is the real issue; your choice of what data to include and where to split the data for two regression lines is crucial. It would be good to should all the data you have first, then make a second plot leaving some data out. This would be more transparent to what you are actually doing and the choices you are making. There must be multiple measurements available for some species too, and I don’t think you are showing that here (maybe you average those too?).

BUT I am getting beyond what can be done in Excel too. The statistical method you need is “Piecewise Regression”, and you let the best model fit “decide” where to split the data (Minimize SSE, or MLE), rather than doing it “by eyeball”. I’m still not sure this would be be better, but it is a less biased way to draw two lines as you are doing. The choice of what data to include will make a bigger difference, as you found with hobbit and Naledi.

I am swamped lately, so I can’t do this for you (not this month).

I suggest that you take that advice seriously, @Jay.

Cherry-picking data is a formal ethical breach in science; most journals now require that authors make all relevant data available, not just what’s in the published paper.

IMO, doing so makes it unlikely that you will be taken seriously.

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Mercer John Mercer Molecular Biologist

Dan_Eastwood

25m

I suggest that you take that advice seriously, @Jay.

Cherry-picking data is a formal ethical breach in science; most journals now require that authors make all relevant data available, not just what’s in the published paper.

IMO, doing so makes it unlikely that you will be taken seriously.

A formal ethical breach in science? I don’t think Dan was accusing me of cherry picking data. His point was that I was fitting two linear trends to a set of data (collected by a third party) when, if I had wanted to fit linear trends (already a human decision) I should have used software that can do that automatically. I have come across an interpretation like that of encephalization data, that had added a downward trend in about the last 100 000 years, (not 10 000 years, my typo above, sorry). That might well be so, but it’s of secondary importance.

My defense is that, firstly, the notion that human ancestors went through an encephalization process - an upward trend, however that is modelled- isn’t controversial. The hominin species who took part in that process isn’t controversial either. Here is a graph from the geneticist Oppenheimer’s “Out of [Africa’s] Eden”

I added in blue, critical data from the 21st century, that don’t fit those trend lines. Note the encephalization trends. It’s those species that I selected for for the joint encephalization trend line.

Secondly, what I added to that line was a second trend, extending much further back in time to Proconsul, and that included the blue data, for species that didn’t appear to have taken part in encephalization. I think it’s uncontroversial that the genus Australopithecus didn’t take part; where my “flatlining” trend is interesting, is that it suggests that Ho. floresiensis and Ho. naledi were members of that flatlining group, and that group extended back much further in time.

So what that graph demonstrates is my human interpretation of that data set. I don’t deny that it’s controversial. The consensus interpretation of the Flores hobbits is that they came to Flores with bigger brains and then evolved smaller brains because Flores is a small island and that kind of thing happens on small islands. My interpretation is that what was significant about Flores wasn’t its small size, but that it lies just to the East of the Wallace line that mammals from the West had found it difficult to cross. And that the hobbits were trying to keep away from the big brained cousins. With good reason, as it turned out.

My more general argument is about structure in human evolution, driven by changes in what Darwin called “the struggle for existence in relation to other organic beings or to external conditions”. I’m arguing that in an ironic twist, the people using the theory of natural selection to tell the human origin story, have drifted by consensus towards a story that for the flatliners, neglects the struggle against other organic beings, and for the encephalization, ignores struggle.

My main interest is in reinterpreting the flatliners, I’m arguing that the consensus doesn’t understand what KIND of animals they were: that the australopiths were mature weapon users, because as prey animals on the savanna they needed to be hard to kill, while, without weapons, they would have been easy to kill. And their descendants have taken weapon use further.

That argument is at once obvious, under-investigated, and multi-faceted, can’t develop it fully here, just to clarify where I’m coming from.

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No, not controversial at all. The question is how you were grouping your data to create the two lines. That’s what seems problematic.

I like the new figure, but your graph barely even overlaps with this one.

??? If you only consider brain size, but I don’t think that’s a good way to classify them as being in the same group (or species).

That’s a plausible hypothesis. I suspect that it’s not so much a matter of ignoring the potential for struggle (it is very plausible), but without evidence of conflict it is speculation. BUT you can make a prediction that (as with Ötzi the Iceman) evidence of conflict may someday be discovered.

Here’s a thought: Data on hominid extinctions is obviously limited, but there should be data on lots of other extinct species out there. You might use body size in place of brain size and look for similar patterns. In fact, I’d be surprised if there aren’t examples in the paleontology literature.

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Bingo.

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If you just glance at Oppenheimer’s graph of encephalization and innovation that seems so, but if you take a second to notice his non-linear scales on both axes then you need some fiddling to overlap it with the linear scales of my two-step interpretation. A year ago I made the table below. I scaled the terminals of his trend lines for various homo species, estimating by eye. Then I took their mid values as framed in red:

I didn’t get a lot out of that table, but for this response I plotted the Mid Date and Mid Vol onto the two-step interpretation. Again, I did that by eye because I had some finger trouble with layers using Paint.net:

Admittedly, there’s opportunity for me to have nudged those data points closer to the line, which I tried not do. But contrary to your claim, there’s a lot of overlap between ChatGPT’s data and Oppenheimer’s.

A good way to discredit the two-step interpretation would be to present a data point lying far from those lines. Like, I showed is the case for the usual single-function curve, when you add the Flores hobbits. Which you hand-wave away as “not the same population”.

Rumracket’s refusal to actually look at an argument- “When I asked chatGPT” stopped reading right there” was just now bingoed by the evolutionary biologist dsterncardinate.

That’s inconsistent with this chatroom having a “Summarize” button so you can let AI give you the lowdown on a topic. The lowdown on what I’m arguing is that scientists have been pushed by an ideological gale into making the biggest mistake that it would be possible to make when telling the human origin story: they tell it from the bottom up, from inside out, ignoring interactions with other players. Ignoring Darwin, when you get down to it.

For example, here is Dunbar’s explanation for the evolution of human language,as mentioned above, according to AI:

ChatGPT: “Robin Dunbar’s hypothesis proposes that human language evolved primarily as a replacement for social grooming as a mechanism for maintaining group cohesion. In non-human primates, grooming functions to reinforce social bonds, reduce tension, and stabilise alliances, but it is time-consuming and inherently one-to-one. As hominin group sizes increased beyond a certain point, grooming alone would have become insufficient to maintain social cohesion.

Dunbar argues that language—initially in the form of vocal “grooming” such as gossip, laughter, and affiliative talk—allowed individuals to reinforce bonds with multiple group members simultaneously, greatly increasing efficiency. Language thus served a social rather than an informational function at first, helping to manage trust, reputation, and alliances within increasingly large groups. This hypothesis is supported by correlations between neocortex size and typical group size in primates, often referred to as “Dunbar’s number.”

In this view, the cognitive and anatomical features underlying language were selected not primarily for tool use or abstract thought, but for their role in sustaining large, stable social groups through enhanced communication”.

Where in that is Darwin’s “struggle for existence in relation to other organic beings or to external conditions”? Fortuitous, that of all the primates, who all absolutely love being groomed, humans are the only ones, and the only living creatures, that we can now have conversations with. And that has worked out so well that, with our livestock, we now make up 96% of the mammalian biomass on Earth.

There is no “Other” in Dunbar’s model. Pity, because it’s the Other that made us, according to Darwin. It’s a fascinating prospect that if scientists just approached the human origin story from the outside, from ecology, from the food web, that might be fruitful.

But hang on, it is scientists who study ecology, the food web, and eusocial superorganisms, like Wilson did. Well, the human origin story told in the name of science has become archaic, thanks to strict policing of a cramped vision.

I’m have been naive in imagining that if I bring little dollops of facts and arguments to Peaceful Science, the peaceful scientists are going to do something different than indifferent stonewalling. It’s frustrating

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