How Science Works: One Anomaly Versus A Mountain of Evidence

[r_speir]

@Rumraket

How about you just leave this place? You’re clearly not interested in doing ANY work to find anything out. Your unbelievably lazy and entitled attitude is a hindrance to meaningful communication.

So no varves in Lake Hiruga after all. Alright so my challenge still stands. Why are we only finding and studying varves in Lake Suigetsu? At this point, all conclusions about varve periodicity are hasty. More research needs to be done.

[evograd (Blogging Graduate Student)]

@r_speir

So no varves in Lake Hiruga after all. Alright so my challenge still stands.

Instead of issuing challenges, why don’t you actually try reading people’s replies to you. If you had, you would have seen Roy’s citation for the varves in lake Hiruga back when he originally posted it.

[structureoftruth (Matthew Dickau)]

Thanks for the offer, @John_Harshman! Unfortunately it seems I have a camel-swallowing demonstration to attend…

[T_aquaticus]

@Robert_Byers1

Well more cheap shots from somebody against YEC.

Mary Schweitzer was YEC before she was introduced to the actual science.

[T_aquaticus]

@r_speir

Good. Thank you. That is certainly a start, (though not necessarily conclusive about why Lake M should not have any varves). Now how about the other lakes?

I don’t understand why you need info on many lakes when you won’t address the data from one lake.

[r_speir]

@evograd

If you had, you would have seen Roy’s citation for the varves in lake Hiruga back when he originally posted it.

I’m ready for it and want it if it exists. Please repost here.

[r_speir]

@T_aquaticus

I don’t understand why you need info on many lakes when you won’t address the data from one lake.

Turnabout’s fair play. You won’t let @PDPrice and myself use one instance that flies in the face of your theories, so why should I let you use one lake?

[T_aquaticus]

@r_speir

You won’t let @PDPrice and myself use one instance that flies in the face of your theories, so why should I let you use one lake ?

So you admit that you are just handwaving the evidence?

[evograd (Blogging Graduate Student)]

@r_speir

I’m ready for it and want it if it exists. Please repost here.

Seriously, how are you this lazy and/or inept? If you want to find the post where Roy originally posted a link to evidence that lake Hiruga has varves, you might think of doing something like hitting CTRL+F and searching this thread for the word “Hiruga”. As it turns out, literally the very first result is Roy’s comment with the link there clear as day. Why do you need your hand held so tightly?

[r_speir]

@T_aquaticus

So you admit that you are just handwaving the evidence?

Are you ready to admit handwaving to @PDPrice?

[evograd (Blogging Graduate Student)]

@r_speir

Are you ready to admit handwaving to @PDPrice?

There’s a big difference between a single (contentious) anomaly not overturning an established scientific framework, and your dismissal of a well-studied lake system that fits perfectly into said established scientific framework.

[T_aquaticus]

@r_speir

Are you ready to admit handwaving to @PDPrice?

Nope, I have addressed it.

[r_speir]

@T_aquaticus

Nope, I have addressed it.

Then Nope, no handwaving from me. I will post a response momentarily.

[T_aquaticus]

@r_speir

I will post a response momentarily.

That response is going to have to explain the diatom layers. It is also going to have to explain why terrestrial organic samples (e.g. leaf and insect debris) have less and less 14C as you go down the varve layers.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/279/5354/1187/tab-figures-data

[r_speir]

https://confit.atlas.jp/guide/event-img/jpguagu2017/MIS23-04/public/pdf?type=in
This is the kind of information I was looking for. The lakes surrounding Lake Suigetsu have far fewer varves (as @Roy’s link verifies) . This is reminiscent of the Green River varves which have been shown were laid down in greater number than one-per-annum. As well, the Green River varves have the peculiar formation that they are far greater in number in the middle and thin out as the shore is neared. It may very well be that the 5-lake system in Japan at this location were in fact one large body of water 4 to 5 thousand years ago and that Lake Suigetsu’s varve count constituted the “middle” of that body of water and were laid down at a faster rate than one-per-annum.

[T_aquaticus]

@r_speir

It may very well be that the 5-lake system in Japan at this location were in fact one large body of water 4 to 5 thousand years ago and that Lake Suigetsu’s varve count constituted the “middle” of that body of water and were laid down at a faster rate than one-per-annum.

So why isn’t that seen in the 14C measurements? Why do these 14C measurements also agree with 14C measurements in annual tree rings, and U/Th correlated 14C measurements for corals? How is it that the annual features of lake varves, tree rings, and corals all give us data that agree with one another if they aren’t annual? How can they all be wrong in the same way?

[r_speir]

@T_aquaticus

So why isn’t that seen in the 14C measurements? Why do these 14C measurements also agree with 14C measurements in annual tree rings, and U/Th correlated 14C measurements for corals? How is it that the annual features of lake varves, tree rings, and corals all give us data that agree with one another if they aren’t annual? How can they all be wrong in the same way?

No, wait. I did not say they were wrong. I said it looks like thorough research has not been done at this point. When I see a lake with only a few thousand varves sitting right next to Lake S with 60,000 varves, then someone is ignoring evidence that needs to be addressed. I am simply saying that it looks like the conclusions are premature.

[Roy (34-year veteran)]

@r_speir

No, wait. I did not say they were wrong. I said it looks like thorough research has not been done at this point. When I see a lake with only a few thousand varves sitting right next to Lake S with 60,000 varves, then someone is ignoring evidence that needs to be addressed.

Quite so. That some-one is you.

[r_speir]

@T_aquaticus

Atmospheric Radiocarbon Calibration to 45,000 yr B.P.: Late Glacial…

You know, forgive the complaint, but here is what’s odd about these kinds of claims regarding carbon dating. How in the Sam Hill do you think you are going to get a good reading of carbon at the bottom of a lake? A lake is the perfect environment for dead organisms to 1. either acquire more carbon or 2. be starved of carbon due to leaching.

[T_aquaticus]

@r_speir

When I see a lake with only a few thousand varves sitting right next to Lake S with 60,000 varves, then someone is ignoring evidence that needs to be addressed.

The conditions in one lake have been conducive to forming varves for a few thousand years while conditions in another lake have been conducive to forming varves for >60,000 years. What more needs to be explained?