"I'm treating the mutation rate as a substitution rate" - Dr. Nathaniel Jeanson

At 2h32m into the Traced video, Jeanson argues that his population growth curve provides an independent data set against which the reliability of ancient DNA can be experimentally tested. Under his methodology the inclusion of early specimens of haplogroups and Neanderthal DNA would violate the correlation with historic population, and on that basis he dismisses such specimens.

Jeanson discusses Neanderthal DNA at length in his Answers Research Journal paper Testing the Predictions of the Young-Earth Y Chromosome Molecular Clock

My results show that the hypothesis of reliable Neanderthal DNA sequences makes poor testable predictions. This is in contrast to those hypotheses that treat Neanderthal DNA as unreliable and modern DNA as reliable, which make successful population growth curve predictions.

Jeanson is being duplicitous here. He is attempting to steer the conversation so that a challenge of his work is somehow a challenge to the population growth curve. The general shape of population growth over historic times is not what is in dispute here. The record of population does not validate Jeanson’s methodology with respect to haplogroup accounting, nor does it confirm his model. The growth of the world’s population fits just fine with the conventional genetic narrative, so that hardly qualifies as a differentialing test.

His complaint with Neanderthal DNA is that it leads to a poor fit with the population growth curve given a 4500 year horizon. Dr. Jeanson, we have just the fix for that - a much longer extent of time.

Jeanson has it backwards, his work is a model, not an independent data set. Ancient DNA is data, not a hypothesis. Tests for the validity of ancient DNA extraction and sequencing are performed with such tests and best practices that are relevant to DNA, and population has sweet nothing to do with that.

That Jeanson sweeps aside Neanderthal DNA ( his paper completely ignores the Denisovans ) is instructive. If it were possible to accommodate the Neanderthals in his model, he would. Jeanson cannot make the catalog of human genetics work within a post flood framework. This is a tacit admission that ancient DNA, including the extensive record of European haplogroups, invalidates his model and realistically any model positing a 4500 year horizon leading back to one family.

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