I am describing history as it is practiced. @jongarvey, who does not appear to be a materialist, agrees that this is how it is done, though he wishes it was done differently.
@T_aquaticus, the reason is that the non-miraculous details recorded in the Gospels (and Acts, I might as well add) include things about what people believed or said or did, details which are best explained by the Resurrection having actually occurred.
Iām not going to lay out the whole argument here, but feel free to look at the article that Iāve been referring to.
The article that I have been referring to contains just the calculation you are looking for.
(Now, you might respond that it is merely published as a chapter in a scholarly-level book rather than in a journal, and I admit I donāt know how Wileyās peer-review criteria differs between those two cases. But since peer-review does not magically confer truth, instead merely serving to weed out falsehood, what ultimately matters is whether the argument in the McGrewsā article is sound. And for that, if you think there is something wrong with it, I again welcome you to point out the flaw.)
Your complaint that if God exists, then anything is possible, doesnāt at all imply that anything is equally probable. We can easily know that (1) will never happen naturally and that (2) is so extremely unlikely to happen through merely natural causes that (practically) it is naturally impossible as well.
But then when it comes to the supernatural side, the context of Jesusā life and death provides a reason God might have for bringing about (1) miraculously, one which is not ad-hoc or highly implausible, while there is no such reason for him to miraculously bring about (2).
Please explain the rigorous methodology that is used to determine what God might, and might not, have done. āThe context of Jesusā life and deathā is vague to the point of uselessness.
Could you give some highlights? Your reference is over 75 pages long.
The first problem we run into is this section:
This is wrong. If Joseph Smith said it snowed on the 4th of December, 1830 we wouldnāt think much of it. If Joseph Smith says that an angel showed him where some golden plates were buried, we would tend to greet that statement with much more skepticism. This is especially true when you take into consideration that Joseph Smith is trying to start a religion based on his own accounts. The author of the article is essentially saying that he can prove the account of the Resurrection is reliable if you assume from the beginning that the accounts are reliable.
Not every rational endeavor, even in science, comes attached to a ārigorous methodologyā. For example: there is no rigorous methodology for coming up with new theories of physics in the search for a ToE. There is no rigorous methodology for deciding which interpretation of quantum mechanics is correct.
Determining what actions are probable or not for God is more akin to these examples of theory formation and evaluation than it is to, say, generating quantitative predictions from a physical theory and empirically testing them.
Nonetheless, thereās some constraints, which we can know from natural theological arguments about God. God does not act contrary to his nature, which is morally perfect. God only acts for good reasons, not bad ones. Etc.
Again, you have to wade into the details, but the upshot is as Iāve stated above: itās not highly implausible for God to raise Jesus from the dead; it is for him to deceptively cause the disciples to hallucinate.
Yes. Which why no one claims to know any of those things. The rigorous methodology comes in when they figure out a way to test one of these hypotheses.
How does one know these things about God? How do we know what is moral, or a good reason, for God?
Yep. By that standard, we will also be forced to accept all sorts of other and incompatible religious and miraculous claims, UFO and alien abduction stories and what have you.
Sorry, but we know too much about the psychology and sociology concerning the spread of religious ideas and concepts, such as the tendency for religious people to engage in producing fan fiction, exaggeration, confabulation, and embellishments, to take them at face value.
How do we know that God is morally perfect? Iām not even sure we know what moral perfection is, much less that there is someone or some thing that has that quality.
Once again, you are very confused about how science works. You may want to review the lessons for your last attempt at this: Hypothesis: A Deceptive Being Makes Many Genealogical Adams.
Read what you quoted from the article closely again, and youāll see that the correct analogy here is not that weāre assuming that Joseph Smith is reliable, but that the record of what he said is reliable.
(And I might add, while I totally agree with you about skepticism regarding Joseph Smith, the specific reason you cited for that skepticism canāt plausibly be applied to the disciples: their situation was entirely different. And thatās why the details matter.)
I donāt see how.
Do you think there is no difference between a claim that Julius Caesar was born of two specific human parents, and that he sprung fully grown from the skull of Zeus? Does science not help us determine the likelihood of these two claims?
Great, so at least we agree that you had no idea of what you were talking about when you compared scholars who accept the reliability of the Gospels (with regards to the relevant facts being proposed here) and Jesus mythicists. Please refrain from such ridiculous comparisons in the future.
This is true, but misleading. One might as well say that the New York Times is not a primary eyewitness account for almost everything they report on. That doesnāt mean we canāt reliably deduce what happened from reading it.
Quite a lot, actually, namely, the general argument about whether Jesus was resurrected from the dead. Historians are free to say that historical method prevents them from making a direct argument about the Resurrection in a peer-reviewed journal (as opposed to facts surrounding the Resurrection). That doesnāt prevent us as people from discussing the philosophical and theological implications of certain historical events.
Yes, there are scholars who donāt endorse claim #2. For example, Bart Ehrman thinks that Jesus was not buried in a rock tomb. But itās not the case that thereās a consensus that #2 didnāt happen, either. Rather, thereās divided opinion, with strong arguments to support the historicity of the burial and empty tomb (see the relevant section in my resurrection article for links to more details.) In fact, Habermas himself surveyed the literature and found that about 75% of scholars support arguments for its historicity.
Still, this lack of unanimous consensus on the empty tomb makes #2 the weak link in the list of facts. It makes my case for the Resurrection not airtight. But Iām fine with that.
Thereās a lot of good evidence for #3, btw. The ancient creed recorded and transmitted by Paul in 1 Cor. 15:3-7 is a very important piece of evidence.
So does this mean that even if claims #1 to #4 were unanimously agreed upon by scholars to have been historical fact, you would still deny the Resurrection could explain them, as that would be contrary to our observations today, that no dead person rises from the dead? Iām confused.
Finally, it seems that you are still struggling to understand the nature of this two-step argument. I can grant that historical method alone cannot prove that Jesus was resurrected. As Jon Garvey mentioned, historians no longer judge such supernatural claims. However, that does not stop you or I from judging the implications of certain historical facts, even if our conclusions wouldnāt be proper to put in a professional journal, for example.
Man! The special pleading from the pro-Resurrection side of this discussion is so thick, you could cut it with a knife.
That is even a larger assumption if we are talking about a secondary author. The very thing we are skeptical of is that women ran back to the disciples and reported an empty tomb. The author of the article just assumes it is true.
I made no such comparison, and have already corrected you on this.
Sure, but irrelevant. What we are discussing is how one determines which historical events occurred. Historians are the people we rely on for that.
Not my claim. No consensus means we canāt use it as evidence, since there is every chance it is just a made up story.
Yup. And since Paul is not even claimed to have encountered the resurrected Jesus, that blows the whole Christian account out of the water. Funny how apologists donāt seem to appreciate this.
Yes. This is known as ārational thought.ā When confronted with a phenomenon which can be explained by stuff that happens, or by something that never happens, choose the former.
Yesā¦ and thatās why, multiple times, Iāve also referenced places you can go to find reasons to believe that the Gospels are reliable accounts, as this article arguing for the resurrection assumes. This is a two-part argument.
Please stop evading and changing the history of this conversation, Faizal. Let me quote you on what you said:
The above statement is false, as I demonstrated by showing the great asymmetry between the two groups of people. Itās clear from our conversation that you know little about NT scholarship. You have not discussed the views of any skeptical scholars in substance, but prefer unsubstantiated sweeping statements. In fact, Iāve been the one quoting skeptical arguments for you.
Itās quite relevant when historians have decided beforehand that historical method cannot be used to analyzed supernatural events directly. Donāt you want to know the truth, instead of just a tentative conclusion based on academic convention?
How does that follow? āEvery chanceā it is a made up story if there is no consensus? No consensus doesnāt mean anything goes, by the way. Thatās just not how NT scholarship works. Hereās a blog post from an NT scholar on how to understand consensus, majority, and minority positions in the field:
https://criticalrealismandthenewtestament.blogspot.com/2014/09/consensus-and-quackery.html.
(Btw, this is similar to a creationist arguing that the fact that there is debate over some mechanisms of evolution makes it more likely that evolutionary theory is false.)
You donāt even know what Iām talking about with regards to 1 Cor. 15. Itās widely accepted that there, Paul is not talking about his own experiences, but quoting an ancient creed that he got from others. Itās mainly about other peopleās experiences of the risen Jesus (Peter, the Twelve, James, and five hundred people).
Well, thatās it, everyone! Thereās not really much use to argue about history now, since Faizal has openly admitted that no amount of historical evidence will make him believe a miracle happened. All this arguing about the reliability of the Gospels is a red herring. In fact, this should have been admitted up front.