Kondrashov's Paradox: Why We Haven't Died 100 Times Over

[UncensoredPilgrims (Paul P)]

@Paul_King

First, that the models do not handle polygenic traits well.

That’s incorrect. The mutation load model isn’t about traits at all. That’s been a misdirection from the start. The model is about mutation accumulation and the effect of the load on fitness. Nothing more or less.

@Paul_King

Second the fact that within-species competition is an important aspect of fitness - and this depends on the fitness variance within the population. But the models do not account for it.

That’s because it’s a redefinition of fitness that obfuscates the problem of mutation load.

@Paul_King

Indeed the major point you are missing is that these fitness declines are only seen in the models, not reality, So from a scientific perspective there is no good reason to think of them as anything more than an artefact of the models.

That’s not true at all. The fitness decline has indeed been observed in reality, but in most cases the timescale needed to witness this is too long with respect to the time we have been observing it.

One example I have seen where a species has been acknowledged to have gone extinct from mutation load would be the wooly mammoth.