Mendel's Accountant

That makes sense–as it is literally the basis of Neutral Theory…

If we assume the mean deleterious DFE is 0.001 on an exponential distribution, like Paul has mentioned, the probability of seeing a VSD in humans that cannot be selected (s < 0.00005) is 4.9% at Ne = 10,000 and (s < 0.000016) 1.6% at Ne = 30,000.

If we charitably assume every single mutation falls in the deleterious category [a completely absurd and demonstrably false claim], you will get 1.6-4.9 VSDs per 100 mutations.

If at any time, those VSDs cumulatively lower the fitness between 1/20,000 – 1/60,000, they will no longer be able to achieve fixation in the population through genetic drift and will be subject to purifying selection. GE does not explain how it violates this speed limit to generate a strongly deleterious genotype in all members of the population simultaneously causing extinction. GE additionally does not explain why we cannot detect the other > 95.1% (1 - % of VSDs) of purportedly deleterious mutations predicted to exist under this DFE. We should be able to quite easily see those 95 / 100 mutations that are patently deleterious in pedigree studies–yet we don’t.

I would say that quite readily demonstrates the DFE being used by GE is factually incorrect. Although, we already knew the DFE in Kimura’s work was for the deleterious coding spectrum anyway…

4 Likes