No, a New Paper Did NOT Discover Humans and Chimps are "Only 85% Similar"

Hi everyone, Gutsick Gibbon (Erika) here. I know I don’t post as much as I used to, but life is busy! I will always find time to talk about this particular topic though (And I’ll cross post this to Peaceful Science).

I recently did a video about the gross misrepresentation of a recent paper by the Discovery Institute’s Casey Luskin over on Evolution News (Link to his works: Author: Casey Luskin | Evolution News and Science Today) called “Every Creationist got this Wrong Because Casey Luskin Lied (Human/Chimp Similarity)” which you can find here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A9R5e3YR34&t=12304s

It’s over 3.5 hours long though, so I think a summary writeup is in order for ease of access.

The paper is by Yoo and colleagues and is titled “Complete Sequencing of Ape Genomes”: Complete sequencing of ape genomes | Nature and Luskin + every other creationist siphoning from him are screaming from the rooftops that it proves at long last that humans are way less similar to chimps than previously thought. That is not true.

This paper is a stunning and collaborative work that reports the “complete” genomes (T-T or Telomere to Telomere) of a chimp, bonobo, gorilla, bornean orangutan, sumatran orangutan, and siamang. Since the human genome (T-T) was completed in 2022, we could now compare all these species “in full”.

What the Paper discovered:

The paper presents “complete” (although some still have minor gaps) genomes for the previously listed species and compares them to the complete human genome (CHM13, Hg002, and GRCh38) as well as one another, while also analyzing them independently. It’s a beast of a paper! One major discovery was just how different the non-human apes were even in closely related dyads (chimps/bonobos and bornean /sumatran orangs). The abstract summarizes: “Such regions include newly minted gene families in lineage-specific segmental duplications, centromeric DNA, acrocentric chromosomes and subterminal heterochromatin.” I’ll also note that while the phylogeny did not change, the divergence times for the apes from one another increased in nearly every case (See Fig. 2 phylogeny) with one major exception being the human/panin (chimp +bonobo) divergence (reported as 6.2 MYA but traditionally in the 6-7 MYA range). This is important because Luskin loves gap divergence so much.

I spoke with three authors involved in the comparative analysis to confirm my understanding of the study and was told point blank: this paper does not change our understanding of the humans/chimp relationship, or even the ape relationships generally. The same phylogeny forms every time regardless of method.

The Creationist (Luskin) Spin

Obviously the human/chimp similarity is problematic for creationists, even ID ones like the geologist Casey Luskin. So Luskin homes in on the number that is the sexiest: the alignment numbers. He quotes the main text of the study and the supplement for this: “Overall, sequence comparisons among the complete ape genomes revealed greater divergence than previously estimated (Supplementary Notes IIIIV). Indeed, 12.5–27.3% of an ape genome failed to align or was inconsistent with a simple one-to-one alignment, thereby introducing gaps.”

He also references Supplementary Figure III.12. ( https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41586-025-08816-3/MediaObjects/41586_2025_8816_MOESM1_ESM.pf ) which can be read by taking the small color coded numbers and subtracting them from 100 to get a “percent similarity”. For example, PanTro3 to Hg002 has the purple autosome number as 0.124732. We can calculate the like this: 100-12.4= 87.6. Luskin then takes the SNV (single nucleotide variant) number from the preceding figure and subtracts it from the gap divergence number to get an “absolute alignment”: 100-(12.4 +1.4) = ~86.2%

Wow that sure does seem different compared to the normal range we see of 96-99% isn’t it!

Too bad it’s nothing new.

Different Methods, Different Numbers, Decades Old.

Alignment and sequence identity are different things in genetics. The former measures how much of one genome can line up to the other, and the latter is the % similarity of those aligned portions. I typically see four numbers floating around:

Protein coding percent similarity: What is the similarity in the protein coding regions of the genome? H/C = >99%.

Whole Genome, SNPs/SNVs only: What is the similarity of the aligned regions, just looking at single nucleotide polymorphisms (single base pair changes or substitutions)? H/C = ~98-99%

Whole Genome, SNPs + INDELS: What is the similarity of the aligned regions, with SNPs and large Insertions/Deletions accounted for? H/C = ~96%

Alignment (1:1 identical: How much of genome one aligns identically to genome two? H/C = 85-90% depending on method and year.

I asked a researcher working closely with the chimpanzee genome project if we have always known these differences in numbers/methods and he said yes. This was corroborated by my undergraduate genetics course on the subject.

In fact, we can find these numbers (including alignment) reported in one way or another (as data or as a plain number, sequence identity in question is clarified by study) in the following papers:

(Original chimp genome sequence) Initial sequence of the chimpanzee genome and comparison with the human genome | Nature , Richard Buggs calculated an alignment estimate using reported data

(Prufer et al., 2013) The bonobo genome compared with the chimpanzee and human genomes - PubMed , Sequence identity reported in main text, alignment can be calculated using Table 1 (H/C), phylogeny is standard

(Prado-Martinez et al., 2013) Great ape genetic diversity and population history | Nature, Sequence identity reported in main text, alignment not reported (that I could find), phylogeny is standard

(Rogers & Gibbs 2014) Comparative primate genomics: emerging patterns of genome content and dynamics - PubMed ,Sequence identity reported in main text (cited), alignment not reported but CNV influence stated outright, phylogeny is standard

Marcais et al., 2018) MUMmer4: A fast and versatile genome alignment system - PubMed, Sequence identity reported in main text, alignment reported in main text, no phylogeny performed

(Kronenberg et al., 2018) https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aar6343 , Sequence identity reported in main text, alignment reported in table S45, phylogeny is standard

(Seaman & Buggs, 2020) Frontiers | FluentDNA: Nucleotide Visualization of Whole Genomes, Annotations, and Alignments, Sequence identity reported in main text, alignment reported in main text, no phylogeny performed

(Yoo et al., 2025) Complete sequencing of ape genomes | Nature , Sequence identity reported in main text and supplement, Alignment reported i main text and supplement, phylogeny is standard.

The point here is simple: the alignment numbers in Yoo et al. are not new estimates. So why is Luskin reporting them as if they are?

What do the Newest Estimates Say about Ape Relationships, and about Creationism?

The paper says point blank that 99.0-99.6% of “human” protein coding genes are found in part or entirely in other apes. We can look to the previously mentioned supplementary figures, or we can consult tables Supplementary Table III.17 to Supplementary Table III.20 to get our whole genome (SNPs) estimates and alignment numbers (although these will differ slightly due to the pairwise/progressive cactus methodology differences). We can also use the supplementary github (ape_pangenome/divergence/basic-div/README.md at main · T2T-apes/ape_pangenome · GitHub) to get similar numbers for a few other pairs of apes. Here is what we get for the autosomes (all non-sex chromosomes) for Hg002 to several hominids.

Whole Genome (SNPs only) ranges:

Human/Chimp: 98.4-98.5%

Human/Bonobo: 98.4-98.5%

Human/Gorilla: 98.0-98.1%

Human/Orangutan (B and S): 96.3-96.4%

Chimp/Bonobo: 99.1-99.2%

B. Orang/S. Orang: 99.5%

Full Raw Alignment (Gap. Div - SNPs)

Human/Chimp: 85.9-87.4%

Human/Bonobo: 85.5-86.7%

Human/Gorilla: 72.6-81.3%

Human/Orangutan (B and S): 83.0-83.7%

Chimp/Bonobo: 88.2-89.9%

B. Orang/S. Orang: 90.9-91.2%

It should be immediately obvious that Yoo et al. report similar numbers to previous papers, and confirm again that alignment will always be lower than sequence identity…but what should also stick out is that human/chimp is not significantly less similar than chimp/bonobo: 85.9 to 88.2 at closest. This tells us immediately that whatever is causing the drop in similarity from sequence identity to alignment it is impacting all species proportionally. This is not good if alignment is meant to separate humans from chimps…

It Gets Worse

Alignments are reported in the supplementary material not just for humans vs other apes, but for within each species. These are below all the human/other ape comparisons in the Supplementary Figure III.11 and 12.

Gap divergence (add the SNV data for the alignment if you’d like)

Within Humans: 96.6%

Within Chimps: 92%

Within Bonobos: 91.2%

Within Gorillas: 86.2%

Within Orangs: 93.4%

That’s right, within gorillas as a species we see a greater gap divergence than that seen between humans and chimps: 13.8 vs 13.3.

Additionally, specific comparisons of human haplotypes (CHM13 to Hg002 and GRCh38) are also included in the previously mentioned supplementary tables. What do these full alignments report?

Supplementary Table III.17.

CHM13/GRCh38: 92.04%

CHM13/Hg002: 93.07%

Supplementary Table III.19

CHM13/GRCh38: 86.96%

Supplementary Table III.20

CHM13/GRCh38: 87.87%

CHM13/Hg002: 88.8%

That’s right, humans vs humans by Casey’s preferred method can be ~8-13% different from one another.

This confirms additional papers supplied to me by Richard Buggs and Joel Duff:

Why can bonobos/chimps, two orang species, or even two humans differ so much in alignment when all of these pairs are >99% (>99.9% in humans) similar in sequence identity? Because the alignment disparities are a result of mutations that can impact thousands of base pairs at once: large scale deletions/duplications/inversions/insertions. These accumulate in the non-coding DNA and are thus not weeded out by selection, allowing them to run rampant. But this is why we do not use the alignment numbers when asking the question: How similar are to organisms genetically?

For the record, rats and mice have a >70% alignment. I don’t suppose creationists like Luskin would propose them to be different kinds, would you?

And Also, Casey Luskin Originally Lied

Luskin omitted talking about the human/human comparisons in his original series of articles, despite pulling data directly adjacent to it in Supplementary Table III.19. But he also dishonestly edited Supplementary Table III.12, hiding the within-species gap divergences and stitching the label back on: https://web.archive.org/web/20250521143923/https://evolutionnews.org/2025/05/fact-check-new-complete-chimp-genome-shows-14-9-percent-difference-from-human-genome/

This is probably because the human/chimp gap divergence of 13.3% is a lot less impressive when gorillas to other gorillas are 13.8%. He has since edited the article to show the whole figure, denying the allegations of originally lying: Chimp Genome, 14.9% Difference | Evolution News and Science Today

Dan of Creation Myths (And here as well) outlined it briefly here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNs_lgWM6R8&t=1s

The Take Home

The newest paper doesn’t change our understanding of humans/chimps+bonobos as one another’s closest relatives, nor does it greatly impact previous estimates of any method of comparison.

Still, we will likely see a new wave of creationist insisting humans and chimps are “now only 85% similar”. When you encounter this in the wild, simply respond by saying “We’ve known about that method for years and using it means humans can be only 87% similar to each other.”

Take care, Gentle and (of course) very Modern Apes

GG

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@GutsickGibbon (Erika)
Thanks for your effort and summary. I’m sure there will be extended discussion. :slight_smile:

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This, to me, is the key to the whole thing. A couple of quibbles: you don’t mean “non-coding DNA”; you mean “junk DNA”, not the same. And I think the alignment methods these genomic comparisons are typically using will deal with inversions as long as they’re big enough. It’s possible that inversions of up to a few hundred bases might be misaligned as successive indels in species pairs, though one would hope not. But the key question isn’t “how different are the sequences?” but what you imply here, “by how many mutations must they differ?”; one indel = one mutation. We still have, between humans and chimps, around 35 million point mutations and 5 million indels, plus a small number of other rearrangements, exactly as outlined in the original chimp genome paper.

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This is excellent work, extremely detailed, carefully precise.

Why can’t creationists do that?

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Is there some formatting error here?

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Well done, Erika. I’ve submitted a similar article that’s set to appear soon on “Panda’s Thumb”. It’s probably a bit redundant, since you and Daniel S. Cardinale have already covered all the key points. But hey — it can’t hurt for Luskin to get hit with the facts from all directions. :slightly_smiling_face:

By the way, it was kind of amusing how he tried to wriggle out of the accusation that he had cropped a figure to make his argument. I’ll be addressing that in detail, too.

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It looks like it was a problem with the % bracketing! Should be fixed now.

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A comprehensive and very helpful video. Thanks for your sacrifice! Also, thanks for the handy summary. It’s copied to my important info file on the topic.

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Be sure to suggest the creation of new unit, the ‘Luskin’, which is a measure of inconvenient data deleted or omitted.

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Thank you for the further clarification!

One thing I can’t mention enough is what you touched on at the end of this comment: this is not new, conceptually. And the numbers themselves (for every method) are similar to previous estimates. In my opinion, Casey seems to have initially gotten ahead of his skis (with the initial bombshell article) and then lied about the figure.

I know it’s not really “peaceful science” to call someone a liar, but I’m not sure editing a figure like that can be considered as anything else. Not much wiggle room there for Luskin.

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There is no true peace where someone is pathologically hostile to the truth.

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Erika, thank you for your videos and the clarity you bring to these discussions. I’m hopeful that Rob Carter will come around on this one. YEC organizations won’t survive if they simply keep rehashing the same arguments decade after decade.

It’s interesting how some of these debates keep resurfacing, even ones that many thought were settled 15 or 20 years ago in the broader creation–evolution conversation.

That said, I do find the recent ID articles troubling, not necessarily because of disagreement, but because of the amount of relevant information that seems to have been left out, and the way the Nature paper is interpreted. It gives the impression that they’ve shaped the data to fit their narrative, rather than following the evidence where it leads.

I’ll be curious to see if Luskin responds. Though if the past is any indication, we may not get a substantive reply. Still, I appreciate the thoughtful engagement happening here and look forward to more discussion.

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5 posts were split to a new topic: Who is Responsible for Misrepresenting Scientific Findings?

Unfortunately, much of the discussion, in particular Casey Luskin’s part, is intended only to obfuscate. Pretending that the 15% genetic distance measure is a new result or is in any way meaningful only serves to confuse the public. The average difference between aligned sequences remains 1.2%, and the average difference between unalignable sequences is

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@AdrianB, welcome to Peaceful Science!

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This is something we struggle with from time to time, but lies, falsehoods, and deception are neither peaceful nor scientific. If a person or person is acting in bad faith, and has no intention of seeking any knowledge and of common ground, then peace is not their intent.

The new guy says it very well too …

Welcome to Peaceful Science, @AdrianB :cowboy_hat_face:

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So, this feels a bit awkward…

Did Dr. Rob Carter, in his response article, really overlook the fact that individual mutations can affect more than a single nucleotide?

Some mutations can alter thousands of base pairs in a single event. But Carter seems to treat every base pair difference as if it arose from an independent mutation, which appears to dramatically overestimate the number of mutational events needed to explain genomic differences between species.

Is anyone else seeing this? Surely, he is aware of this fact.

While Carter briefly acknowledges the existence of large mutations, he seems to ignore their mathematical and biological significance in his argument. The core logic of his piece relies on treating every base-pair difference as if it must be explained by a separate mutation, which doesn’t align with what we know about genome evolution.

If I were to draw an analogy, it would be like watching someone walking down the street at 3 miles per hour, then arguing that it’s impossible for a person to travel to a different continent because walking at that speed would take too long. Now, imagine the person making this argument acknowledges the existence of airplanes, but then ignores them in the calculation, insisting only on walking speed as the way to travel.

In the same way, Carter notes the presence of large-scale mutations, which can cause big jumps in genetic differences, but then treats every single base-pair difference as if it must have arisen from one independent mutation event.

Am I missing something here? Would appreciate thoughts!

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This is the same Carter who (along with Sanford) gave us their theory of Genetic Entropy, which has been much discussed here previously. Based on previous behavior, I think it likely he would overlook anything that does not suit his purpose.

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The Dead Sea scroll of Isaiah is reportedly 95% identical to the Masoretic text. Accepting that number, there are several hundred differences, many reflecting spelling variations in the vernacular of the time so words are different in length. Therefore, if you simply line up the Dead Sea scroll against the Masoretic text from the first word, and count corresponding letters to the end of the book, early offset would result in a percent not above random, reflecting the frequency of occurrence of the various letters. Obviously, that is a useless comparison, and reasonable approaches must be used for alignment. Those are not some form of cheat just to make the percent identity look good.

A similar concern with alignment presents with DNA, except that, unlike words, not all sequences in DNA are under any obligation to mean or code for anything, and therefore differences in those stretches of DNA may be freely more pronounced. So understanding and aligning the structure of DNA is essential to obtain a useful comparison. The ape - human DNA comparisons in the latest work, when aligned on the same basis as previous papers, yield essentially the same results as found prior.

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It’s especially weird because the within species gap divergence for gorillas is 13.8%…the human/chimp is 13.3%…If Carter accepts all gorillas are related (I think he does) he is proposing that the 13.3% for humans/chimps is impossible in 7 MILLION years but that the 13.8% for JUST gorillas is possible in 4400 years!

In the comment below the article some creationist brings this up and Carter argues that the gorilla intraspecific difference is due to deletions so genetic entropy can explain the gorilla status in 4400 years (while the human/chimp ostensibly requires more types of mutations so it is impossible.)

But guys…the paper and supplement reveal the gorilla is so variable due primarily to duplications (I think, it’s described as characterized by the most repetitive elements). So genetic entropy won’t work for gorillas UNLESS it can cause excessive mutations of other varieties (like duplications/inversions/insertions) and thus human/chimp becomes explicable too lmao

The explanation being that humans and other apes experienced excessive deletions instead ALSO doesn’t work. These papers describe human/human non-functional differences as being of all structural varieties! So NONE of it works for Carter!

See the above for in depth descriptions. I don’t think ANY of Carter’s logic can simultaneously explain gorillas/humans/chimps intraspecifically but not the human/chimp differences…

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