The Difficulty with Detecting Design

In the thread “Does a Watch Prove Design?”, @Faizal_Ali wrote:

I think this is a very important point. There would be no overwhelming evidence that the synthetic organism had been designed. No precambrian rabbits, no “message from the designer” in the genome. Just an organism designed to survive, with whatever modifications subsequent evolution would have caused.

In this scenario, a naturalistic explanation would have been proposed for every feature of the synthetic organism, including those designed by Venter’s group. Or, if an explanation had not been proposed, one would be expected to be forthcoming. After all, “evolution is cleverer than you are,” and “absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence”.

The extraterrestial scientists working on the assumption that the synthetic organism had arisen without any intelligent design wouldn’t be part of any “conspiracy to cover up the truth” or “blinded by materialist dogma”. They would be behaving as good scientists, working under methodological naturalism to propose the best naturalistic explanation for the features of the organism.

Anyone claiming that the synthetic organism was originally designed would be asked who designed its designer. Surely, it would be more parsimonious to assume that the organism evolved than to posit an unexplained lab team.

And yet, the organism was designed. Any causal account would be incomplete without Craig Venter and his lab, whether or not the extraterrestrial scientists realized it. The clues of its design, if any had been left, would be subtle, and reasonable people would be able to come to different conclusions regarding its origin.

How is all of this relevant to life as we know it? Simply this: Life could be designed, and we wouldn’t know it. Especially if we require that evidence for its design be so overwhelming as to be undeniable or to consist of observations that the alternative cannot possibly explain.

1 Like

Yeah, well so? We could all be living a giant computer simulation and we wouldn’t know it. The whole universe including us could have been created last Thursday with phony evidence and phony memories and we wouldn’t know it. But since there is zero positive evidence for any of those things it’s a waste of time to do anything but idly speculate about them.

3 Likes

Yes. People often mistakenly believe science is in the business of determining The Truth. It is not. Rather, it is in the business of devising theories and models that can explain the observations that are made, and predict which observations will and will not be made in the future.

Now, it is tempting to conclude that the phenomenal successes achieved thru the scientific method are because it does determine The Truth regarding how the universe in which we exist objectively behaves. But that is a metaphysical position that cannot itself be judged scientifically.

Every living thing that has ever existed on earth could have been specially created by an omnipotent God who deliberately did so in a manner that would look convincingly as if they had all evolved from a common ancestor thru mutations, drift and natural selection.

Such a hypothesis makes no predictions on its own, besides those that are possible thru evolution, so is worthless as a scientific idea.

The problem is not that we are placing excessive demands on those who wish to argue that life was “designed.” Rather, the problem for these people is if we play by the rules by which every other scientific claim is judged, “design” just does not measure up.

4 Likes

There is no need to posit a deliberately deceptive deity to imagine that it might be difficult to unravel design from evolution. After all, Craig Venter’s lab does not attempt to design organisms so that they look like they evolved. And yet, that is probably what the extraterrestrial scientists would conclude.

The reason is that imagination is powerful, and it’s possible to imagine scenarios that never took place. Just consider John McDonald’s gradual series of evolving mousetraps. Designers of mousetraps never attempted to make their mousetraps look like they evolved in such a fashion, and yet human imagination was able to construct such a scenario.

Of course, an extraterrestrial scientist would be able to say the same thing about the possibility that the synthetic organism was designed. As an active imagination can always conjure up evolutionary transitions, even for features that didn’t evolve, the demand that a design hypothesis makes predictions that are impossible under a non-design paradigm is not a very fruitful approach to design.

Which is just what I said.

It does not follow that the same extraterrestrial scientist, after looking at the life forms inhabiting earth, the fossil evidence of organisms that lived before, and all of the other relevant evidence, would not conclude that the life forms now on earth had arisen thru evolution. In fact, that is almost certainly what he would conclude, since that is the scientifically correct conclusion, and if he’s managed to fly a spacecraft all the way to earth, he’s probably no dummy when it comes to science.

But who is asking for that? I am asking that you creationists make some predictions about what would be observed under the “design” model, but not under the evolution model, and then show that those predictions are correct.

IOW, I am asking you to use science.

evidence for design is a clear prediction. anotehr one is non hierarchy in both fossils and genetics and another one is ic systems.

No, sorry. “If design was true, there would be evidence of design” is not a specific or testable prediction.

I don’t know what that means.

No, that was predicted by an evolutionary biologist over 100 years ago.

http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/comdesc/ICsilly.html

why not? its a clear prediction.

it means that we can find genes in far species but we cant find them in some closer species. in other words: non hierarchy.

No, it’s a meaningless tautology.

I still do not know what you are trying to say.

He doesn’t know himself, that much is clear by now. This discussion has been had with him before and he didn’t get any of it. He thinks his ability to just make up a drawing of a phylogenetic tree with cars, bicyles and buses as species is a good argument that design is at least a good if not superior explanation for consilience of independent phylogenies. Repeated attempts to try to explain to him why him just making up a tree is not a good argument to that effect have met with failure.

3 Likes

realy? should we try it again?

I am trying. Feel free to respond to my comments.

@Rumraket mentioned you can draw phylogenetic trees of designed object, like cars. Can you show me how you do this?

Put the following cars into a phylogenetic tree that shows a nested hierarchy:

Honda sedan
Honda coupe
Ford sedan
Ford coupe.

That’s just four “species”, not the millions that biological phylogeneticists can organize. Should be a piece of cake.

1 Like

Yes. People often mistakenly believe science is in the business of determining The Truth. It is not. Rather, it is in the business of devising theories and models that can explain the observations that are made, and predict which observations will and will not be made in the future.

This doesn’t make much sense to me.

What are scientific models and theories, if not for coming up with an approximation of how nature truly operates?

… it is tempting to conclude that the phenomenal successes achieved thru the scientific method are because it does determine The Truth regarding how the universe in which we exist objectively behaves. But that is a metaphysical position that cannot itself be judged scientifically.

So what are you trying to say? That because science cannot be used to determine its own applicability to the world, that the question of whether scientific knowledge actually corresponds to actual states of the world is unanswerable?

I would sure hope not!

Such a view strikes me as much more typical of new age thinkers and postmodernist philosophers than scientists. In all my exposure to philosophy of science, I know of no sufficient reason to doubt that science has a strong correspondence to reality; at least, more often than not.

These ideas really do strike me as an unjustifiable skepticism about the scientific method, or perhaps even sense-based knowledge in general.

My intuition is that whether it’s more parsimonious would depend on how the background details (all prior knowledge of evolutionary theory) fit into the details that surround this particular case (the context around the discovery of Venters organism itself).

I think given the nature of a lot of the evidence for evolution, there is greater care required when extrapolating from natural observations compared to the care that’s required for (for example) controlled experiments, which (should) have a lot of the care built in to the process of observation itself.

In the case of alien scientists assessing Venters organism, I think we should expect that the extra care they take knowing that their observation was not made under controlled conditions would be more likely to lead them to conclude rightly than not.

It seems to me that this is true even though it is the case that they might still be more likely to get it wrong than right.

I’m not sure this is the case.

Instead of a synthetic organism, perhaps we stumble across what seems to be a previously undiscovered natural wonder. We have with us a friend that has majored in all the primary engineering specialties who tells us, after some time investigating this natural wonder, that he strongly suspects that it is not actually a product of nature, but that it has been designed by someone who has directly utilized in the structure a knowledge of modern architecture in such a way as to convincingly mimic natural formations.

While we might find this statement of suspicion surprising (given the face value of the “natural wonder”), would we really expect ourselves to think that he is being ridiculous for making this suggestion?
More specifically, would we really think that in order for it to be reasonable for our engineer friend to conclude that the wonder was designed, that he must first be able to explain who designed the designer of this fake “natural wonder”?

It doesn’t seem to me that this question actually has, or should have any impact on our assessment of how likely it is that the natural wonder was really designed.

Now, you might respond by saying that these situations are not analogous. However, I’m not sure that the primary difference in these scenario’s - chiefly, life - makes much of a difference when we consider that the nature of Venter’s design of the synthetic organism is in oversimplified terms, an elaborate and purposeful reconstruction of natural elements, with the intent to mimic what we observe in nature.

It seems to me, more likely than not, that the assessment of Venter’s synthetic organism is quite plausibly analogous to an engineers design of a fake, but convincing “natural wonder”.

3 Likes

Yes. Kind of like how I can’t prove that I am not a brain in a vat.

I don’t really waste much time worrying about such questions. But if we are going to engage in this sort of metaphysical discussion, then we have to be rigorous and correct in the claims we make.

Yes. Kind of like how I can’t prove that I am not a brain in a vat.

I don’t really waste much time worrying about such questions. But if we are going to engage in this sort of metaphysical discussion, then we have to be rigorous and correct in the claims we make.

I don’t know what you mean by prove, but I would certainly hope you would agree with the idea that we can know we are not a brain in a vat.

The question of how we know this is important. Science as a means of knowledge generation requires that it is a valid means of acquiring knowledge. If we can’t know whether scientific facts correspond to actual states of the world, like you think, then we can’t justify science as a valuable contribution to human knowledge. This would include, for example, evolution.

These issues are hardly a waste of time if we want to believe that science is actually something worth doing.

1 Like

No, I do not agree.

Science is worth doing just by virtue of the fact that it allows us to interact with the universe we perceive in such a manner that we can predict what will and will not happen, and intervene in ways that allows it behave in ways we would prefer it to.

Why is that not worthwhile on its own?

1 Like

Science is worth doing just by virtue of the fact that it allows us to interact with the universe we perceive in such a manner that we can predict what will and will not happen, and intervene in ways that allows it behave in ways we would prefer it to.

Why is that not worthwhile on its own?

How can science make predictions about what will and will not [actually] happen in the world if its conclusions don’t correspond to what is actually the case about the world?

God could be playing tricks on us.

I agree that a very good explanation for that observation is that there is an objective, external, material reality that is accurately modeled by our scientific theories and laws. But I don’t see how that can be tested.

God could be playing tricks, it’s true. But I don’t see any reason to believe that, whether God exists or not, he is playing tricks. Do you? If so, why?

Presumably here you mean empirically tested, right?

I’m not sure why we should expect that the proper way to assess the soundness of empiricism is via empirical tests. It seems a little like saying that the only way we can know whether someone is honest, is whether he tells us that he is honest.

It seems to me that we can know, beyond a reasonable doubt at least, that science does correspond to reality, and that this can be known without necessarily requiring any empirical data at all.

its actually very easy if i had the list of all these cars traits and a special program to do that. but i dont so its near impossible. but i can show that in general a car will be more similar to other car than to say a bicycle. so we can group most bicycle with other bicycle and most cars with other cars and we will end up with a tree like this:

1 Like