The Mystery Of India's Plummeting COVID-19 Cases

[Michael_Okoko]

@T_aquaticus

From what I have seen, deaths caused by Covid-19 might be the most accurate statistic, at least in retrospect.

This again, might be easily obtainable in the US, but from where I come from, its not so clear cut.

@T_aquaticus

This can be done by comparing the time period of the pandemic to the same periods from previous years and looking for the number of excess deaths.

I agree. I will look up any available data to make the necessary comparisons.

[Rumraket (Mikkel R.)]

@thoughtful

As you know - but likely a reminder - official counts aren’t actually counts. It is extremely unlikely that many other countries are capturing data like we are - they just don’t have the capacity or the ability to do so. I read a few stories about India last fall I think it was as well. Their official death counts are probably well under actual also. There were a lot of people turned away from multiple hospitals and dying in the streets. Although anecdotes may not describe the real story, it sounded really, really bad.

If what you say is true then a combination of factors are at work that seem to solve the mystery posed in the article in the OP. If more cases and deaths than have been and are being reported, combined with a greater proportion of Indians having generally more resistance to infection (either because they have well-trained immune systems because of living in unclean environments, or possibly also due to some degree of selection from this same environmen), combined with an increase in people following stricter guidelines, and a growing number of people having become immune through mild or undetected infections, then that would all contribute to an appearance of reducing numbers of cases.

That even sounds more realistic to me than the idea that any particular single cause explaining a large majority of any detected reduction in cases.

[Mercer (John Mercer)]

@thoughtful

It is extremely unlikely that many other countries are capturing data like we are - they just don’t have the capacity or the ability to do so.

Yes, but not in the direction you were assuming.

We have the capacity and ability, but with the federal government in denial, not enough of that was implemented.

You’d be surprised at how much better than the USA many countries are at this stuff.