Thinking About Falsifiability and Abiogenesis

[swamidass (S. Joshua Swamidass)]

@swamidass

I’ve read one scientist who said one chance in 10^{-50} means it is theoretically impossible no matter how big the multiverse is?

Absolutely not. That is just a math error.

First of all, there is no way to compute that 10^{-50}, and if the multiverse is 10^{50} times bigger than the context where that number was computed, well then the probability starts to approach unity (100% likely to occurs). What is being proposed here is a uncomputable number, that is unnormalized, and tightly depending on information that we just do not have.

@Ronald_Cram, I hope you understand why this is a just a math error. An uncomputable but finite probability multiplied by an independent potential infinity is 100% likely to occur . The fact that life is rare in the galaxy only makes this fact more clear.

Did you catch this too? That is a math error. You see it I hope?