When a Scientist Believes Data Does Not Support Theory in Climate Models, What Then?

Puck, the key part of your answer is this:

That’s the only kind of debate I’m asking for, a debate by super-competent people in a field, that is deliberately aimed at a highly intelligent audience. Debates where the purpose is demagoguery (either of the right or the left), I’m not interested in. Much of the debate about global warming, on both sides, is, I readily concede, motivated by demagoguery. That hardly means that a debate, with two high-quality participants, could never be of value.

Nor am I suggesting, as you seem to think, that I am looking for a “winner” in the debate. Both you and Mercer seem to have a very crude and limited notion of the meaning of the word “debate” in English. I think you imagine some prep-school contest run by high school teachers, or some culture-war affair set up by a special interest group on one side of the issue, where a partisan or even non-partisan crowd, most of whom know even less about the issues than the debaters, “votes” afterward on who won the debate. You guys here all continually forget my background – very high-level education in the humanities. I’m talking about serious, high-level thought, not two people shouting at each other with off-the-shelf arguments.

For example, in political theory, you can have very high-level, serious debate between a Marxist theorist and a Platonist, with a live audience consisting mostly of people who have spent their lives reading all the major works of political philosophy for the past 2500 years. An example of such a debate relevant to the current topic might be a prepared scientific conference event where two eminently qualified climatologists, each long familiar with the work of the other, stake out opposed positions in front of an audience of climatologists (or others with scientific competence to follow the debate), and there is a lengthy period for rejoinders and rebuttals between them, followed by a lengthy period where each answers questions from the highly trained audience. If ever such a debate has been filmed, and is available on the internet, I would watch it.

But here’s an interesting question for you as a lawyer: Much of what you say would apply to courtroom trials as well. Often the law is complicated, yet a jury (of laymen who cannot be expected to know nearly as much about the law as either prosecutor or defense attorney) is asked to decide which of the two legal experts has made the better argument. Are you advocating scrapping juries (because they will be fooled by superficial elements of the lawyers’ performance and won’t understand the legal substance) and replacing juries with a panel of expert lawyers from some Law society or university? It’s a side-point here, I know, but I’m wondering if your implicitly elitist notions about communication and debate are limited to scientific matters, of whether you would extend them into law.

I agree with what you are driving at, but once again I find myself misunderstood here. I am not talking about some prep-school debate. I’m talking about two people, both acknowledged experts, standing on a stage, with all their audio-visual materials prepared, each well aware of the sort of arguments the other person has presented in the past and is likely to present again in the debate, and each agreeing to stick just to the science, with a moderator there to rule out of court any ad hominem remarks about someone funded by an oil company, etc. And plenty of time allotted for rebuttals and rejoinders and rebuttals to rejoinders, so that there is back and forth, and thus time for the careful qualifications that all serious debate requires. E.g., “I grant your point regarding X; however, it is not the only factor involved; you seem to be leaving out the effects of Y…” From such a debate, one might learn something. Where can I find a recording of such a debate?

And again, I am not looking for a crude “winner” in such debates. The point is to educate the public (or at least, the patient and thoughtful part of the public which will take time to listen to the debate) on what the alternatives are, why their adherents support them, how scientists gather data and reason from data, etc. The point of the debate would not be to settle the question once and for all, but to provide an intelligent framing of the issues – after which listeners could then go on to study more about the issues on their own, who knows, maybe even take courses from climatologists to make themselves more familiar with the details.

That is, I see debates – properly conducted, and in the right spirit – as tools of education.

I don’t think this is a serious concern. I’m well aware that a great many scientists are surprisingly inarticulate – and not just in speech but even in writing – as I am a professional copy-editor these days and have seen things written by Ph.D.s in just about every field of science that are shockingly bad in prose and even in logic. (If these guys write that badly, when they’ve spent weeks writing a paper with plenty of time to edit their work, I’d hate to have to listen to them speaking off the cuff in a debate!) But there are also at least a few scientists in each area of study who, in addition to knowing their science, know also how to communicate well. There should be some in the climate science community who can communicate well, and who could stand up against clear communicators like Christy and Curry. In biology, for example, we have people like Dawkins and Gould; in astrobiology there have been people like Sagan; there surely must be some in climatology that could do the same.

As I already said, the debate was not over evolutionary biology but over the origin of life. I’ve listened to almost all the segments. Which ones have you listened to? It sounds as if the answer is “None.” I would suggest you listen to some of them before deciding what is in them.

I’ve never heard him say that, and I doubt he ever has said that, and to the best of my knowledge, he is an “old earth” creationist, not a YEC. But in any case, he did not say that in the debate to which I’ve referred you. He didn’t talk about dinosaurs or the Bible; he talked about things like chemical bonds and chirality – if that term means anything to you. And in that debate, he crushed the arrogant young grad student (or former grad student; I think “Professor Dave” did an MSc in Chemistry sometime in his past, but isn’t working in science now). It was wonderful to see youthful insolence and braggadocio (to use your word) completely humbled by maturity and mastery of the subject-matter.

This is all I have time for on this thread – I must get back to the aforementioned editing! See you guys in a few months!

The problem is that you wouldn’t know – and neither would I – what to make of such a debate. To know, for example, how ludicrous Stephen Meyer’s statements in debates are, you have to know some biology; he can therefore “win” a debate before an audience of clowns while continuing to have zero credibility to reasonably literate people. And I note that you aren’t claiming competence in this area:

I think a debate can, for that reason, have no value for you or for me. We would need to study the issues much more deeply to have sufficient understanding to judge the merits of positions.

Not really. The judge decides questions of law, not the jury.

I think the English have done a better job of this, limiting juries mostly to criminal cases. It’s very common when one has a factually complex case for the jury to decide on a basis completely alien to the basis it was instructed to consider. I’m not for abolishing juries in civil cases, but everyone connected with civil justice knows that juries are very, very deeply flawed. Some people say they don’t know this, and hold forth about the wisdom of jurors, but I think they just are obsessed with what they regard as a kind of civic virtue of the jury system; anyone who has tried complex issues before a jury knows what a mess it is to have an essentially random decisionmaker, easily swayed by irrelevant considerations, responsible for important decisions.

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It seems to me that if we wanted to make a court case like a spoken debate we’d have to make the following changes.

The jury would be absent while the evidence was being presented (which negates a major point of the system)

The jury would be larger, self-selected and packed with partisans of both sides (again, rather less than ideal)

The lawyers would be given multiple rounds for their closing speeches, possibly allowing them to reply to points made by the other. Which might be a small improvement (though I have doubts) but hardly counters the major issues with the jury.

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The point, since you seem to need it spelled out in terms that a dull undergrad student could understand, is that Tour has had no qualms about issuing derisive, condescending and sarcastic diatribes about evolutionary biology despite having no training whatsoever in that field.

So if Professor Dave deserves to be accused of “cockiness” and of engaging in a “swaggering display of twenty-something testosterone”, what terms of derision, adjusted for age, shall you choose to describe Tour’s behaviour? None, of course, because you’re a hypocrite like that.

I am here to serve:

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I’m pretty certain that @Eddie would prefer it that way. He seems to be extremely allergic to engaging with evidence.

See, nothing about evidence there. Eddie seems to be as clueless about law as he is about science.

So false claims he’s made before that interview don’t decrease his credibility in your eyes??

Which is more important in the context of OoL research, synthetic chemistry or biochemistry? I’ll remind everyone that any reply will represent the opinion of someone so jaw-droppingly clueless about chemistry that he claimed that ribozymes are proteins.

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Do you ever listen to yourself, Faizal? The following remark is of a type not at all uncommon in your posts:

Do you really expect to win many people from “the other side” over to your point of view when you write like that?

I wonder whether Paul King, who is always telling me my dialogical manners are improper, will so much as notice, let alone mention, this habit of yours. I doubt it, since he never raises the question of manners regarding anyone on the atheist side. But moving on to the substance of your comments:

  1. I have never used any argument based on red blood cells (or parts thereof) in dinosaur bones to draw conclusions about the age of the earth, and in fact I believe the earth is billions of years old, and that dinosaurs such as T. Rex lived millions upon millions of years ago. I am also skeptical of any claim that blood cells have been found in dinosaur bones, but even if they were, I would be hesitant to draw conclusions without first making a careful study of the find.

  2. In the very short clip which Joel Duff provides, I don’t hear Tour mentioning the figure of 6000 years which you gave (in an obvious attempt by you to suggest that maybe Tour is a YEC). If Tour does mention that figure in the clip, please direct me to the exact spot in the Duff video. I listened to several minutes of it, but not all.

  3. Duff claims he found the Tour video on the Evidence and Reasons site. I went to that site. I found two videos by or about Tour, but could not find this video. Duff is sloppy not to read out the exact link, so that people can listen to the entire thing in its original context. This is especially the case when, as Duff himself admits, there appears to be a cut in the video with Tour, meaning that the interviewer may have left out some important contextual statements by Tour. The viewer naturally wants to go back to the interview that Duff indicates, listen to the whole thing in sequence, and find out more about the setting of the interview, who the interviewer is, how much may have been cut, whether one can get back somewhere to the uncut version, etc. – but Duff has made it impossible for us to do that. Bad scholarship on Duff’s part.

  4. Duff admits (listen starting at 7:00 in) that Tour is right to think that if red blood cells had actually been found in dinosaur bones, that would be a real problem for the conventional dating of the dinosaurs. So it’s not Tour’s reasoning that Duff objects to. It’s his trust in unreliable data. Duff’s complaint amounts to: Tour shouldn’t have trusted his YEC sources about the red blood cell claim, but should have checked it out; had he checked it out, he would have discovered that not red blood cells, and not even haemoglobin, but only decay products of haemoglobin, have been found. Tour should have been more careful.

  5. Presuming for the sake of argument that Duff reports correctly regarding blood cells and dinosaur bones, I agree that Tour should not have trusted his sources, but should have checked them out.

  6. This, however, is completely irrelevant to the video series (Tour vs. Farina) that I referred you to, since in that series, Tour does check out the sources of every statement on the table in the debate. Every scientist, every video interview with a scientist, every peer-reviewed article Farina cites as proving something, Tour examines in minute detail (sometimes right down to the footnotes) showing either (a) that Farina is misusing his source, since the scientist or article didn’t say what Farina says, or (b) that even when those scientists did make the claims that Farina says they made, those scientists were making claims that their own data (as given in their articles) did not support.

  7. Therefore, Joel Duff’s application of the moral of Tour’s mistake (accepting YEC claims about blood cells) is completely unwarranted. Basically, Duff’s argument is: “Since Tour is so careless as to accept YEC claims that aren’t substantiated, how do we know that he isn’t equally careless when he argues about the origin of life?” But that’s a poor argument. The fact that someone is careless in one place doesn’t mean he’s careless every place; in fact, he may be scrupulously careful 99.9% of the time. So if Duff wants us to doubt the quality of Tour’s arguments against Farina or more generally on the origin of life, Duff can’t be lazy (as he is being lazy in the loose argument I’ve just related); he has to look at Tour’s arguments and point out the problems with them.

  8. I am not saying that all of Tour’s remarks or arguments about the origin of life are good or beyond criticism. I am saying that in the debate with Farina, he crushes Farina. If you doubt me, watch the debate for yourself. I’ve listened to every installment. And I’m saying that, in addition to being just plain wrong about the chemistry dozens of times, Farina comes across as a cocky young man, filled with self-importance, who likes to draw attention to himself – which is why I thought of him when you used the word “braggadocio.”

  9. You have not answered my question where the “braggadocio” is in the statements I have made on this page.

If you reply to the above points, I will listen, but if instead of replying to them, you just launch into more insults and throw out more misdirections, don’t expect any further reply.

How many winnable people from “the other side” do you think are reading this, Eddie?

Interesting. I have no such belief. My position, unlike yours, is based on evidence.

You are obviously unwilling to make a “careful study” of anything but hearsay.

Busy with editing, eh?

Is 66 million the same as “millions upon millions”? and it’s T. rex, always italicized and the second word always in lower case.

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One would expect someone who claims to edit scientific papers to know something that basic.

That’s very reasonable of you. But I am not discussing your views on the matter. I am discussing James Tour, and whether he holds to the same standards you do yourself.

I admit that he does not mention a specific figure. What he DOES say is that T. Rex could not possibly have died out 70 million years ago because, he believes, soft tissue has been found that could not have remained intact for that period of time. Now, he does not say when he does believe they died out. Could be 6000 years ago, maybe 10,000, who knows? But, based on the video, he does not accept the scientific consensus that it was many millions of years ago.

Also, to be clear, I have made no claim regarding what he believes the correct age of the earth to be. It is entirely possible that he believes T. Rex was stomping around Earth at the time that humans were first learning to brew beer, but that he also accepts the the world itself is 4.5 billion years old. I have no idea.

On the contrary, Duff provided a link to the original video in the summary of the his video. I guess you just missed it.

Yes, that is not in dispute. But have red blood cells been found? Gee, what a great question. I wonder what efforts Tour made to find the answer before publicly declaring that they had been found.

Let us here remind ourselves of how utterly apoplectic Tour becomes over OOL researchers who, believes, overstate their findings, or make claims with a degree of confidence he does not feel is warranted by the available evidence.

Does Tour show any doubt regarding whether red blood cells and collagen from dinosaurs have been found? If you believe he does, please show where in the video this occurs.

Yes, “Eddie”. Let’s “presume for the sake of argument” that the trivial, non-controversial, grade-school level idea that T. rex has been extinct for over 65 million years is true, and that no scientific evidence has been uncovered to disprove this. Great idea.

Yes. I am not talking about that. I am talking about whether James Tour accepts that dinosaurs have been extinct for millions of years. That has nothing to do with his argument with Dave Farina, nor have I claimed that it does.

No, Duff has said nothing of the sort. He has merely included Tour in a series of video in which he debunks people who claim unfossilized blood cells of T. rex have been found. That’s it. The rest is just your imagination.

I have no interest in engaging in a protracted argument over what amounts to a subjective opinion, Anyone is free to form their own opinion based on what they have read from you.

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Thank you. Your framing, however, suggested a desire on your part to hint that he was a YEC. It was your framing that I objected to.

You’re going to have to be more specific – minutes and seconds, please. I just listened to the last few minutes of the video, where presumably the “summary” is found, and there is nothing there. And I also reviewed the beginning of the video, where the inset of the Tour interview first appears, and where Duff says he was sent the video by a friend, and names the organization it came from, but he does not give a webpage, and the video is not found on the webpage of the organization he names. Nor can one get to the original video by clicking on the inset – at least I couldn’t. So either you have made an error in your claim here, or you need to help me with the minutes and seconds where the exact link is given.

But it was what I was originally talking about. And in your original comment on what I said (look up what you wrote!), while you didn’t directly contradict what I said, you made mock of it by finding fault with what what Tour said about dinosaur blood, leaving the reader to make the connection, “If Tour is so wrong about dinosaur blood, his criticism of Farina is probably not worth listening to.” This sort of of oblique argument, whereby you imply an argument but then, when accused of making it, you can say, “I didn’t claim that”, is a standard modus operandi in your posts here. The reader knows exactly where the sarcasm is aimed, but you can always claim innocence.

Yes, he has. Go to 16:48 and listen until 17:54. I was of course paraphrasing, not quoting (as my word “basically” and the absence of quotation marks indicates), but he did make the link with the Tour’s arguments on the origin of life there. Not with Tour’s debate with Farina specifically, but with his arguments on the origin of life generally. It was not my “imagination.” Perhaps you didn’t get that far into the video?

Just as well, because you’d have a hard time finding “braggadocio” in my claims on this page – and it was this page that I asked you about. But I suppose we can chalk up your use of that hyperbolic characterization of my statements to the same loose habit of speech that caused you some months back to refer to blocking downtown traffic in Ottawa as an “insurrection” against the Government of Canada.

It is often the practice on Youtube that, when a video features excerpts from another video source, a link to the original video will be included in the written summary found under the video. That is the case here.

OK, Boomer?

Apart from that, my sole purpose in providing this video was to address your incredulity that Tour had ever expressed doubt regarding when dinosaurs went extinct. Hopefully, that problem has now been resolved. Beyond that, I honestly have no interest in responding to your, - what was the phrase? - petty cavilling.

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Thanks for providing the link.

I have already agreed that Tour should not have accepted the claim about blood cells without checking the source. I also agree that in the video (which is obviously incomplete – I’d like to get the whole interview, if it still exists), he is ambiguous regarding the age of the dinosaurs.

I’m not sure why Tour is ambiguous; I was under the impression he was an OEC rather than a YEC. But maybe he has some leanings toward YEC after all. If that’s so, I stand corrected. In any case, he shouldn’t be ambiguous. Whether he’s an OEC or a YEC, he should say so straight out; or if he’s not sure, he could say so, and explain why he’s not sure. It certainly doesn’t help his persuasiveness to give the impression that he might be a YEC but is concealing the fact.

However, if you ever look up the debate with Farina, you will find none of that ambiguity; just razor-sharp precision about molecules, bonds, chirality, what it takes to make the molecules Farina is talking about, etc.

I don’t know how to account for the difference between the two Tours, the one who gives interviews to evangelicals and the one who limits himself to perfectly secular discussions of the origin of life. I don’t know the man personally. Maybe Joshua, who knows him better, could describe his position on YEC vs. OEC with some precision.

In any case, I have no particular interest in trying to divine his theological position, or defend it; I do think he raises very reasonable scientific objections to claims about an unguided or unplanned origin of life.

Your unwillingness to acknowledge your error regarding what Duff said is noted.

OK, X-er? :slight_smile:

“Razor-sharp precision”? Eddie, you have no clue whether Tour is being precise or not.

Here’s an example of your chemistry acumen:

Meyer’s blatant lie from Signature in the Cell, p. 128:

“A protein within the ribosome known as a peptidyl transferase then catalyzes a polymerization (linking) reaction…”

HHMI

HHMI Researcher Thomas Steitz Wins Nobel Prize in Chemistry

Thomas A. Steitz, Venkatraman Ramakrishnan, and Ada E. Yonath awarded the 2009 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for studies of the structure and function of the ribosome.

“…it shows unambiguously that the ribosome is a ribozyme because we can see where the substrate binds and there’s no protein atom near enough to that site to produce any catalytic activity.

Continuing the discussion from Eddie and others on Meyer's books, ID, and creationism:

Confronted with this blatant falsehood, the razor-sharp Eddie simply regurgitates the lie:

There’s also your apparent inability to read/understand the Nick Lane book…

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Pretty pathetic when someone has to keep harping on an error I made years ago, and which I retracted on this very site, within about 36 hours of making it. And pretty pathetic that Faizal, who knows I retracted the error, gives Mercer a “Like” for trying to score such cheap victory. (Especially when Faizal has yet to retract his error above about what Duff said.)

Anyhow, though I make no claim to know a great deal about molecular biology, my general chemistry is still sound enough to follow Tour’s arguments, and he definitely demolishes “Professor Dave” in the video series I mentioned – and does some damage to several claims by some of Professor Dave’s scientific “experts” as well. Empirical knowledge of how matter actually works can be very embarrassing to those “scientists” whose stock-in-trade is speculation, extrapolation, making “models” based on very imperfect understanding of the phenomena they are modeling, etc.

As for Nick Lane, he has several admirable passages in his book, among which I might highlight page 13 (on proticity), page 63 (on ATP), and pages 70-71 (on pumping protons across the mitochondrial membrane). Clearly he knows his stuff well, as Tour knows synthetic chemistry well. Actually, it might be interesting to see a YouTube conversation between them on the subject of the origin of life. Certainly Lane would be a much more informed and mature respondent for Tour than “Professor Dave”, who appears to have an adolescent mind inside a twenty/thirty-something body.

I know more about biochemistry than you, and Tour does not demolish Farina at all. It was honestly extremely embarrassing to watch Tour flail around for as long as he did on such simple points. But this does an excellent job of demonstrating precisely why ‘debate’ is worthless. Because you were impressed by Tour even though he was wrong, and you couldn’t tell.

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It’s kind of funny how “Eddie” seems to pity those idiot YEC’s who bought Tour’s lines about dino blood, but is so sure he is too smart to be fooled by the same Tour in the debates with Farina.

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First of all, most of Tour’s arguments concern only fairly basic chemistry, not requiring much biochemistry to grasp, and I was in my day an excellent student of basic chemistry (which was a factor in my winning a scholarship to a major research university); and second, yes he does demolish Farina, and the fact that you can’t see it raises doubts about how much chemistry you really know. Further, I suspect you watched only one or two of the instalments; I watched them all. Third, nothing stopped Farina from coming back with rebuttals to Tour’s criticisms, in an ongoing multi-part video series, but in almost all cases he failed to do so. Nor have I seen any of the other scientists Dave cites, whose articles Tour minutely analyzes, come on YouTube to defend their claims against Tour’s criticisms. But you’re welcome to go through the videos, point by point, and point out Tour’s chemistry errors. Start a new topic on it, if you like. I’ll write to Tour to give him the link to your posts. I don’t know whether he would make the time to take on yet another overconfident, twenty-something amateur and dilettante, but he might.

And by the way “I know more than you”, besides sounding adolescent-schoolboyish, does not count as an argument; if it did, you would automatically lose the argument to Christy, because he knows far more than you about climate science (35 years in the field, with decorations in the field, for him, as opposed 0 years in the field, with no one in the field ever having heard of you, for you). You said qualifications should be ignored, and only contents of arguments considered; well then, never mind my qualifications, but simply address Tour’s arguments. Again, I promise to alert Tour of every column you publish here, and every video you put against him on YouTube.

I didn’t say I was smart; the basic chemistry needed to see that Farina is BS-ing and that his scientist-idols are bluffing is not very deep. But if I made such rebuttals, everyone here would jump on me, saying I don’t know enough science, so I’m glad it’s Tour who is making them – someone who has accomplished more in chemistry research than anyone posting here. Tour argues essentially the same way that I would, using the same lines of reasoning, but unlike me, he can’t be successfully shouted down by the baying jackals here. Anyhow, there’s no point in talking to you about this, Faizal, since you have no intention of watching the Tour series and will form your opinion about Tour’s performance in it based on prior prejudice, as you’ve done with Denton’s books and in other cases. Your mind is, to paraphrase a line spoken in a classic 1964 horror movie, shut like a steel trap.

There is nothing about abiogenesis research that only requires basic chemistry.

No he does not, and you’re not qualified to assess such things.

I watched them all.

It’s a better argument than ‘I think he knows more than you!’, which is the only argument you’ve ever come up with.

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I didn’t say that abiogenesis research overall could get along without knowledge of biochemistry. I said that the errors in some of “Professor Dave’s” statements can be readily understood without much knowledge of biochemistry. There’s a difference.

You don’t know whether I’m qualified or not; you’ve never seen my university transcript, have you?

And an unidentifiable evolutionary biology (not synthetic chemistry) grad student, talking out of his field, is? Give me a break!

If you can prove Tour’s statements are wrong, go to it!

For example, did Tour make false statements when he pointed out that on more than one occasion the reaction products Farina and his sources were boasting about required chemicals that were bought by the experimenter in a pure state that would never be found in nature? And how much biochemistry expertise does one need to know that the need for bought, purified chemicals to generate a reaction product constitutes a fundamental methodological flaw in an experiment that supposedly shows how the reaction product could have arisen on an early earth? If you, with your allegedly greater “qualifications”, don’t have enough power of reasoning to work this out for yourself, then there is no reason why I or anyone here should take seriously anything you say about any scientific matter.

Self-correction; the film in question was from 1963, not 1964. But the application of the words is still the same. And the movie is still great, better by far than what passes for horror movie these days, and far better than its embarrassingly bad remake from the late 1990s. I leave the identification of the film as a bonus question, for those acquainted with classic moments in culture.