Those two are not in contradiction. A protein can be both highly stable, in that it takes a high temperature to make it lose structural integrity such that it becomes nonfunctional, while also being able to perform it’s function while undergoing some degree of structural change. And increased ability to accommodate other substrates with different shapes and sizes, yet retain a similar overall structure.
No. I don’t know what the likelihood of forming any of them is. That obviously depends a lot on what their ancestral states are. That’s the problem with this kind of ad-hoc probability calculations of de novo emergence is.
Forming the sequence AAAAAG by random mutation of AAAAAA is much more likely (here there just needs to be one “correct” mutation), than forming it from GCCTTT. Thus the prior probability of it’s de novo emergence is meaningless to calculate unless you know what sequence gave rise to it. You are committing the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy.
And it might not even have emerged in that kind of spontaneous fashion. The ultimate ancestor could be a sort of fusion protein derived from fragments of other extinct proteins, or homologoues that have long since lost all trace of detectable sequence similarity. Or it could, in principle, have grown from a much smaller peptide that had an entirely different function. We don’t know, and hence these sorts of calculations are meaningless mental masturbation.
Not really. If Axe really wanted to know the probability of this sort of protein fold’s de novo emergence, he should first of all have at least attempted to reconstruct the most ancestral version he could reliably infer, as that sequence would be closer in time, sequence, function, and structure, to the one that actually did originate and subsequently give rise to the superfamily.
And then he shouldn’t have somehow tried to alter it to make it less tolerant to mutation by deliberately making a highly temperature sensitive variant of it, as that directly affects the so-called “pass rate” he uses to calculate how many sequences are able to fold and function. Obviously a much more stable protein is able to tolerate many more substitutions before it loses integrity and stops functioning. If it takes more mutations to destabilize it, it will have a higher pass rate. So Axe is stacking the deck against it with a temperature sensitive variant.
It is noteworthy that even the ancestor of class A is highly thermostable, and quite promiscuous. This suggests there are many, many more possible functional versions than what Axe infers from his highly sensitive variant, that was only tested indirectly for one function. Since these enzymes are capable of acting on a range of substrates, low-activity versions for one might still be useful, high-fitness variants for another. He can’t just pretend this reality is irrelevant.
That’s pretty much what they do in the 2nd reference:
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/ja311630a
You can see the data in the supplementary information.
They reconstruct four consecutive ancestral nodes in the phylogenetic tree of class A enzymes(see figure 2) and show each of these four “steps” in this evolutionary history are functional (and that they are functional on a range of different substrates) despite being different from their extant TEM-1 descendant by 93 out of 262 total amino acid positions.
Key question: If phylogenies are just fantasies and this evolutionary history did not actually occur, and if proteins are generally not all that tolerant to mutation, why is it possible to use a phylogenetic algorithm to infer protein sequences that are that different from their modern counterparts, which are still highly functional, and higher temperature stability?