Yes, it’s very frustrating not to have many tests out there… I think everybody feels that. it also seems a huge issue to economic recovery might be adequate testing, so that those who have gotten immunity to the virus can return to work.
Maybe you should consider doing more than a first glance. You might learn that our technical leaders have been ignored by Fox News and the Trump administration:
Because California’s political leaders listened to scientists:
https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/Asymptomatic-transmission-is-driving-the-15177695.php?utm_campaign=CMS+Sharing+Tools+(Premium)&utm_source=share-by-email&utm_medium=email&fbclid=IwAR0Wp1ZP-c7dlKkK9FOrdprauGqyPI6JhqcAM24C_RnBaApVngTIeUQT_40
https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/Santa-Clara-County-coronavirus-study-helped-15177206.php?utm_campaign=CMS+Sharing+Tools+(Premium)&utm_source=share-by-email&utm_medium=email&fbclid=IwAR2mo46P8GTqK4YVNYZ6Zx0i6NpspV1UHhCfjz-6BGX5bqkkeIzgFtb59Oo
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Shouldn’t your man John Sanford be front and center telling us that COVID-19 is going to undergo decay and extinction?
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This ^^^^. California is the only state where “flattening the curve” is working because it was addressed early enough. California Governor Gavin Newsom listened to his scientific and medical experts and implemented the shutdown / social distancing weeks before anyone else did. As a result CA is projected to not run out of hospital beds or ICU space. The only downside is “flattening the curve” means the number of infected will slowly decrease just as it is slowly increasing. We’ll see peak infections in early May, infections drop close to zero in late June or early July.
That fat-headed egotistical oaf in the WH had all the information early enough to make the same sort of tough decisions but chose to ignore and make fun of the threat. It finally took all his top people dope-slapping him to make him realize he couldn’t lie and bluster his way out of this problem. The country of course is having to pay for his stupidity and inaction both in dollars and in lives lost.
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I agree with the peak (earlier in some places and later in others), but dropping close to zero is dependent on the public’s collective ability to learn and a host of still-unknown factors, one of which is whether the virus is evolving to become less pathogenic.
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This is certainly a valid possibility however the death toll in California is 10% of the NY cases which scales with the posted infection toll which is also 10% of the NY cases.
What is your current opinion of hydrolychloroquine plus Z- Pac as a treatment?
Did you mean to say that CA has (roughly) 10% of the confirmed cases and deaths of NY? That’s very different from saying they have 10% less.
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Hi Dave
Thanks for the correction.
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You might find this video instructive. Professor Kim Woo-joo from Korea University Guro Hospital explains many facts about the virus, and talks about different responses in different parts of the world. He is excellent.
There are cultural differences at work, plus experience from previous virus epidemics. S. Korea does far more testing, contact tracing and isolation, plus almost everybody uses face masks.
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I think he’s already made it clear.
Why do you want his opinion of a treatment when you disagree so vehemently with his opinion of evolution? How do you compartmentalize that massive disparity?
Why aren’t you looking more deeply?
What are you afraid of finding?
At what point do you engage with the evidence rationally instead of posting banalities?
That’s a different kind (antibody) of testing that not only will necessarily lag behind the RT-PCR testing for active infection, but also will likely have higher false-negative and false-positive rates.
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IgG, right? (I am a family doc)…but still was thinking esp with asymptomatic or mildly affected individuals who were not able to get a primary test it will be helpful. Thanks
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This is a moving target if you are following it at all. I am interested in @swamidass current opinion.
I don’t disagree in general with his opinion on evolution.
IgG, but also IgM, which tends to be produced earlier.
I don’t disagree with your thinking; it’s absolutely essential. Antibody testing will just take a lot longer and will likely fit more with confirming what we hypothesize based on the epidemiology.
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I’m trained as a virologist, Bill; my first lab rotation in grad school was studying defective interfering particles produced by a chicken coronavirus by RNA fingerprinting.
I don’t see that any target has moved since the beginning of the pandemic. It’s about the Trump administration’s denial and incompetence.
It’s obvious from his post at the start of this very thread, Bill. I’m sure that he still agrees with Fauci, who says there’s not enough data.
There’s no good data supporting the use of chloroquine. A new Chinese trial came out; it’s only slightly better than the worthless one from the French group. The data in the tables don’t support the words in the text.
I’m fairly confident that @swamidass would agree with the hypothesis that the continued lack of good published data means that the vast majority of those trying it are not seeing that it works.
When did your dramatic change in opinion occur?
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Thanks. I hadn’t thought how long it will take. We sometimes check IgM/IgG levels to track disease progress, like HSV or acute mononucleosis, Hep B, and cat scratch, and pulmonary pathogens like histoplasma or blasto. I appreciate your teaching. I usually refer to immunology and ID when we get to chronic deficiencies etc, though.
Exactly. And all of those, unlike those for this new virus, have well-known rates of false results and huge, longitudinal studies to back them up.
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@swamidass is a trained medical professional so I would assume his opinion could change with data coming out from the population of treated patients if he is following it? I am not sure what Fauci’s current opinion is.
It has not changed.
Yes. You’re clearly just trying to waste his time.
Then you’re clearly not paying much attention and people shouldn’t bother with your lazy, banal questions here.
That took me less than 15 seconds. Why are you asking Josh instead of looking for yourself?
Right. In the same way that Trump’s opinion of coronavirus hasn’t changed, I bet…
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That took me less than 15 seconds. Why are you asking Josh instead of looking for yourself?
What does this news article tell you about the results doctors are getting in the field? What you got in 15 seconds is useless.
Coronavirus: Dr. Anthony Fauci warns Americans shouldn’t assume hydroxychloroquine is a ‘knockout drug’
I already know we should not assume this but it not being a" knockout drug" does not mean it cannot be a useful tool to help control this crisis. Time is not our friend here as the whole economy is in a vary precarious position and lives are being lost daily.