Heliocentric Certainty Against a Bottleneck of Two?

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Correctly Weighting Coalescents

I’ve been sure for a while that there was simplification introducing error into this estimate.

I finally got around to correcting this part of the code, and recomputing the TMR4A. Here is what we arrive at, a TMR4A of 495 kya, nearly 500 kya. This is a better estimate.

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How Much Faster for a TMR4A of 100 kya or 6 kya?

How much faster would we have to see mutation to find a TMR4A a much lower level? These numbers change with this improved estimate.

  1. If TMR4A was at 100 kya, we would expect the mutation rate to be 2.6e-8 per generation, or 5x more than observed.

  2. If TMR4A was at 6 kya, we would expect the mutation rate to be 43e-8 per generation, or 83x more than observed.

That is why most scientists are going to find a single couple genetic origin of humans before 500 kya implausible. It just does not fit the evidence.

As I get more opportunities to refine the results, I’ll continue making them and posting them here.

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