Calculating probabilities requires better knowledge in two areas:
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In order to know all the possible outcomes, it is helpful to know how much of a genome is pure noise, and how much is already being used.
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Not surprisingly, if one species has “x” amount of genome, and another species has “10 times x” in raw genome, more mutations can occur each generation.
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If we don’t know how much of the genome is “almost ready” to become a gene with a specific use, how can we calculate a probability?
Probabilities work best when you know the universe of possibilities… like the heads and tails of a coin… or the number of possible sides a pair of dice have.
How do you calculate probabilities when someone gives you a pair of invisible dice, and only visible side is the one that is facing up? Your first task is to see how many sides there are … but as you slowly rotate the dice, the number keeps getting higher and higher … with no end in sight!
The logic of evolution becomes more important than the math:
Once one agrees that enough changes can aggregate in a population that makes them no longer reproductively compatible with another part of the population … all other things about evolution are possible!
[1] These changes could involve blood or ovarian chemistry;
[2] These changes could involve physical facilitation (if the male or female become so large or so small that many potential mating partners are physically unable to accomplish the deed);
[3] These changes could be changes in peripheral aspects of mating, like the song birds make to attract mates! In a single generation, a change can happen in a bird’s brain that triggers a different song … and the only ones willing to mate with it might be other descendants that share the same song change.
Once two groups of a single population no longer freely exchange genetic information, then one group will no longer experience the same set of mutations… and they will start traveling their own unique road of genotype and phenotype.
@colewd, I just read your post above… I hope you think my post touches on what you were describing.